AmTrust Financial Services, Inc (AFSIB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.8B
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc
AFSIB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +3.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 45% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (17/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($9.46 to $36.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.48 – $15.00 · fair‑value band $9.46 – $36.41 · the $14.51 price screens below the $21.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc (AFSIB) currently trades at $14.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.08, implying the stock looks roughly 45.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AmTrust Financial Services, Inc generated revenue of $6.0B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at $694M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.46 (bear case) to $36.41 (bull case); at $14.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 45%, AFSIB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($14.61) versus Asset-Based ($10.81). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 17 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. operates as a specialty property and casualty insurance provider, offering insurance protection, warranty programs, risk management, and related services.
Full company description
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. operates as a specialty property and casualty insurance provider, offering insurance protection, warranty programs, risk management, and related services. The company provides insurance products and services including general liability, product liability, commercial property and casualty insurance, workers' compensation, surety bond products, legal expense coverage, and commercial auto insurance for sectors such as taxi fleets. Specialized insurance solutions are available for executives, professionals, and financial institutions through divisions such as AmTrust Exec, AmTrust Pro, and AmTrust FI. The company delivers warranty programs, risk management services, and title and escrow services for residential customers, agents, and lenders. It works with agents and wholesale brokers to customize insurance packages and supports risk funding arrangements and program business clients through underwriting subsidiaries. The company serves clients including small local firms, middle market contractors, national home builders, land developers, privately- and publicly-held companies, professionals, financial institutions, small businesses, retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, developers, business entities, and individuals across a wide range of industries. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2013 – FY2017 · reported fiscal years
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2017 versus $2.7B in FY2013, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$349M in FY2017.
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Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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