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AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AIXTRON SE $20.55, price $44.50, upside -53.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
AIXTRON SE
AIXXF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $20.55 · Strongly overvalued (−53.8%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 37/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.07 – $69.50 · fair‑value band $15.66 – $25.43 · the $44.50 price screens above the $20.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
AIXTRON SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry in Asia, Europe, and the United States. The company offers G10-SiC, G10-GaN, G10-AsP, AIX G5+ C, Closed Coupled Showerhead systems for research and development, AIX 2800G4-TM, and AIX G5 WW C.
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AIXTRON SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry in Asia, Europe, and the United States. The company offers G10-SiC, G10-GaN, G10-AsP, AIX G5+ C, Closed Coupled Showerhead systems for research and development, AIX 2800G4-TM, and AIX G5 WW C. It also develops, produces, and installs equipment for the deposition of semiconductor materials; and offers deposition processes, consulting, training, customer support, and other related services, as well as peripheral equipment and services to support the operation of its systems. In addition, the company engages in supplying deposition equipment for volume production; and research and development and pre-series production activities. Its products are used in laser, LED, display technologies, optical data transmission, SiC and GaN power electronics, and other applications. AIXTRON SE was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Herzogenrath, Germany.
Stock analysis
AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) currently trades at $44.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.55, 53.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.85 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $44.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.45, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.66 (bear) to $25.43 (bull), the price of $44.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AIXTRON SE reported revenue of €556M in FY2025 versus €429M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was €85.3M in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.4B · P/E ratio 71.8 · P/S ratio 11.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.6200 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 15.3% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 199% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −54%, AIXXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.66
Fair Value $20.55
Bull $25.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3554 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$20.88
$31.62
$47.53
80
Growth DCF
$21.11
$30.50
$43.49
78
Owner Earnings
$9.27
$13.71
$20.29
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$20.88
$31.62
$47.53
80
Owner Earnings
$9.27
$13.71
$20.29
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$13.31
$18.72
$25.40
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$16.56
$24.85
$34.41
75
5Y P/E Exit
$18.40
$28.31
$38.70
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$15.70
$21.27
$28.42
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$17.98
$25.45
$35.19
69
10Y P/E Exit
$19.12
$27.81
$38.42
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.79
$18.74
$25.02
64
Lynch FV
$4.18
$5.97
$7.76
61
PEG = 1.0
$4.18
$5.97
$7.76
57
EPV
$8.05
$9.16
$10.11
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.48
$2.95
$4.47
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.48
$2.45
$3.12
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$17.87
$23.83
$29.79
63
P/S Multiple
$10.85
$14.47
$18.09
58
P/B Multiple
$10.85
$14.47
$18.09
55
EV/EBIT
$17.62
$23.13
$28.64
66
EV/EBITDA
$15.74
$20.62
$25.51
67
EV/Revenue
$9.44
$13.02
$16.61
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.54
$6.08
$9.08
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$21.11
$30.50
$43.49
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$13.31
$18.94
$25.58
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.77
$8.44
$10.19
76
ROIC Compounder
$8.05
$9.20
$11.17
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$14.57
$20.81
$27.05
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +19.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+33.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+29.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+25.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+21.6%
AIXXF screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with ASML Holding →
Compare AIXTRON SE with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 213 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $511.38 | $368.52 | −28% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $187.92 | $160.12 | −15% |
| Teradyne, Inc TER | $415.79 | $65.79 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥339.30 | ¥110.10 | −68% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 5,670 TWD | 4,864 TWD | −14% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥700.90 | ¥320.60 | −54% |
| Qnity Electronics, Inc Q | $124.69 | $70.44 | −44% |
| Entegris, Inc ENTG | $151.89 | $92.64 | −39% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.55 versus a price of $44.50, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIXXF?
Our model-based fair value for AIXTRON SE is $20.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.50.
What is the quality score of AIXXF?
AIXTRON SE has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.66, optimistic scenario $25.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AIXTRON SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.55, about −54% upside versus a price of $44.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.66, optimistic scenario $25.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
AIXTRON SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €503M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does AIXTRON SE pay a dividend?
AIXTRON SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.34% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AIXTRON SE would have to grow free cash flow by +11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIXXF use?
Our models discount AIXTRON SE at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AIXTRON SE that is +11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AIXTRON SE grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies +11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AIXTRON SE (+11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.09 %: that much free cash flow AIXTRON SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIXTRON SE it is $20.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $44.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AIXTRON SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AIXXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.50, fair value $20.55, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIXXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.55). For AIXTRON SE the two are $23.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AIXTRON SE worth?
The market values AIXTRON SE at about $7.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $44.50; our models calculate a fair value of $20.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIXXF?
Our models span a range for AIXTRON SE: cautious scenario $15.66, base $20.55, optimistic $25.43 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $44.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIXXF?
AIXTRON SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 8.1, P/S 14.7, EV/EBITDA 74.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AIXXF?
The PEG ratio of AIXTRON SE is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AIXTRON SE (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIXXF from its 52-week high?
AIXTRON SE trades at $44.50, about 36% below its 52-week high of $69.50 and 199% above the low of $14.88 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AIXTRON SE?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AIXTRON SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $44.50, calculated fair value $20.55 (−54%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIXXF calculated?
We run AIXTRON SE through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AIXTRON SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $44.50. Our model-based fair value is $20.55, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AIXTRON SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of AIXTRON SE
How large is the market capitalisation of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The market capitalisation of AIXTRON SE is $7.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AIXTRON SE is 11.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Earnings per share at AIXTRON SE are $0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 71.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The dividend yield of AIXTRON SE is 0.3% (payout 24.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The net margin of AIXTRON SE is 15.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AIXTRON SE is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIXTRON SE is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
The operating margin of AIXTRON SE is −37.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Revenue at AIXTRON SE is growing −47.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AIXTRON SE (AIXXF)?
Earnings per share at AIXTRON SE are growing −9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AIXTRON SE (AIXXF) hold?
AIXTRON SE holds more cash than debt, €101M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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