Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alpha Bank SA $1.09, price $1.30, upside -16.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Alpha Bank SA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1917 – $1.35 · fair‑value band $0.9200 – $1.77 · the $1.30 price screens above the $1.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Alpha Bank in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Alpha Bank is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Alpha Bank S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in Greece and internationally. The company offers savings, premier, deposit, payroll, and payroll for pension accounts, as well as savings and sight account in foreign currency.
Show more
Alpha Bank S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in Greece and internationally. The company offers savings, premier, deposit, payroll, and payroll for pension accounts, as well as savings and sight account in foreign currency. It also provides personal, mortgage, home improvement, and green loans; debit, credit, and prepaid cards; digital wallets; health, home and car, credit card protection, online transactions, card theft, mortgage loan, personal insurance products, as well as unit-linked and insurance savings plans; and working capital facilities, corporate loans, leasing products, factoring services, letters of guarantee/letters of credit, trading, and wealth management services. In addition, the company offers investment products, such as mutual funds, investment plans and combined investment, equities and stock exchanges, bonds, and term deposits. Further, it provides various business banking products and services comprising business banking advisory, business cards, partner ecosystem, green solutions for small businesses, deposit products, financing solutions, sectorial programmes, insurance, Nexi POS, and international trade; international market products; corporate finance, custody, shipping, and other services; and mass payment, Nexi XPay, cash management, online legalization for legal entities, tools, online term deposit for business, myBusiness benefit, API portal, and e-banking. Additionally, the company offers supranational development and national development programmes, and recovery and resilience facility loans; gold personal and business banking services; GEM portfolio management and e-wealth services, and lombard loans. Alpha Bank S.A. was founded in 1879 and is based in Athens, Greece.
Stock analysis
Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.09, implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.23 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.3000, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.9200 (bear) to $1.77 (bull), the price of $1.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alpha Bank SA reported revenue of €4.6B in FY2025 versus €249M in FY2021, a compound +107.7%/yr. Reported net income was €943M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $12.0B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 2.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −16%, ALBKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9200Fair Value $1.09Bull $1.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +37.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43% vs 31%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 55% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and −9.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (39 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alpha Bank SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALBKY
Frequently asked questions
Is Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.09 versus a price of $1.30, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALBKY?
Our model-based fair value for Alpha Bank SA is $1.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.30.
What is the quality score of ALBKY?
Alpha Bank SA has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alpha Bank SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.09, about −16% upside versus a price of $1.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Alpha Bank SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alpha Bank SA pay a dividend?
Alpha Bank SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alpha Bank SA would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALBKY use?
Our models discount Alpha Bank SA at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alpha Bank SA that is -3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alpha Bank SA grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies -3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alpha Bank SA (-3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.26 %: that much free cash flow Alpha Bank SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alpha Bank SA it is $1.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alpha Bank SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALBKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.30, fair value $1.09, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALBKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.09). For Alpha Bank SA the two are $0.2100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alpha Bank SA worth?
The market values Alpha Bank SA at about $12.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.30; our models calculate a fair value of $1.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALBKY?
Our models span a range for Alpha Bank SA: cautious scenario $0.9200, base $1.09, optimistic $1.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALBKY?
Alpha Bank SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.5, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 18.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ALBKY?
The PEG ratio of Alpha Bank SA is 1.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alpha Bank SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALBKY from its 52-week high?
Alpha Bank SA trades at $1.30, about 4% below its 52-week high of $1.35 and 60% above the low of $0.8100 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alpha Bank SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alpha Bank SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.30, calculated fair value $1.09 (−16%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALBKY calculated?
We run Alpha Bank SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alpha Bank SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.30. Our model-based fair value is $1.09, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alpha Bank SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.9200 to $1.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Alpha Bank SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The market capitalisation of Alpha Bank SA is $12.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alpha Bank SA is 2.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Bank SA are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The dividend yield of Alpha Bank SA is 2.0% (payout 25.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The net margin of Alpha Bank SA is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alpha Bank SA is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alpha Bank SA is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
The operating margin of Alpha Bank SA is 48.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Revenue at Alpha Bank SA is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Bank SA are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alpha Bank SA (ALBKY) carry?
The net debt of Alpha Bank SA is €7.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Alpha Bank SA in the live analysis
One click puts Alpha Bank SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026