Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alfen Beheer BV stock €14.53, price €10.22, upside +42.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.26 – €118.70 · fair‑value band €9.95 – €23.08 · the €10.22 price screens below the €14.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and services smart grid solutions, energy storage systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment in the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium.
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The company offers in-house developed, produced, and an assembled range of secondary substations for grid operators; and microgrids and substations, as well as offerings to connect PV farms, EV fast-charging hubs, and industrial companies to the grid.
It also provides smart and connected electric vehicle chargers for use at destinations, such as home, retail, workplace, and public locations; and stationary and mobile battery energy storage solutions for use in load balancing, peak shaving, grid frequency control, and energy trading.
The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) currently trades at €10.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.53, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €13.05 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the €10.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.09, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €9.95 (bear) to €23.08 (bull), the price of €10.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alfen Beheer BV reported revenue of €436M in FY2025 versus €250M in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€189K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €221M Micro · P/E ratio 340.7 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) €0.0300 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 42%, ALFEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€9.95Fair Value €14.53Bull€23.08
Price €10.22 · Upside +42.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0257 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.2% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 564 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+42.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.53 versus a price of €10.22, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALFEN?
Our model-based fair value for Alfen Beheer BV is €14.53 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.22.
What is the quality score of ALFEN?
Alfen Beheer BV has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.53 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.95, optimistic scenario €23.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfen Beheer BV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.53, about +42% upside versus a price of €10.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.95, optimistic scenario €23.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Alfen Beheer BV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €486M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfen Beheer BV would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.2 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALFEN use?
Our models discount Alfen Beheer BV at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfen Beheer BV that is +7.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfen Beheer BV grew +18.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfen Beheer BV (+7.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.40 %: that much free cash flow Alfen Beheer BV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfen Beheer BV it is €14.53 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €10.22. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Alfen Beheer BV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ALFEN trades below its calculated fair value: price €10.22, fair value €14.53, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.53). For Alfen Beheer BV the two are €4.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfen Beheer BV worth?
The market values Alfen Beheer BV at about €221M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €10.22; our models calculate a fair value of €14.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFEN?
Our models span a range for Alfen Beheer BV: cautious scenario €9.95, base €14.53, optimistic €23.08 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €10.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFEN?
Alfen Beheer BV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 340.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 69.4 (the reported result was a loss). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 65.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfen Beheer BV (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALFEN from its 52-week high?
Alfen Beheer BV trades at €10.22, about 48% below its 52-week high of €19.67 and 24% above the low of €8.26 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfen Beheer BV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Vertiv Holdings, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfen Beheer BV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €10.22, calculated fair value €14.53 (+42%), Quality Score 63/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFEN calculated?
We run Alfen Beheer BV through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €14.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alfen Beheer BV currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €10.22. Our model-based fair value is €14.53, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfen Beheer BV right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€9.95 to €23.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alfen Beheer BV
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The market capitalisation of Alfen Beheer BV is €221M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfen Beheer BV is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Earnings per share at Alfen Beheer BV are €0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 340.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The net margin of Alfen Beheer BV is 0.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfen Beheer BV is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfen Beheer BV is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
The operating margin of Alfen Beheer BV is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Revenue at Alfen Beheer BV is growing +23.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN)?
Earnings per share at Alfen Beheer BV are growing −28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alfen Beheer BV (ALFEN) carry?
The net debt of Alfen Beheer BV is €20.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026