Alfen N.V (ALFEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · NL · Market cap €294M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€2.83 to €5.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.26 – €118.70 · fair‑value band €2.83 – €5.36 · the €12.65 price screens above the €4.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Alfen N.V (ALFEN) currently trades at €12.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.09, implying the stock looks roughly 67.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €436M. Revenue declined 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.1%. Net debt stands at €20.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €2.83 (bear case) to €5.36 (bull case); at €12.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -68%, ALFEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€11.58) versus Earnings-Based (€3.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and services smart grid solutions, energy storage systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment in the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium.
Full company description
Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and services smart grid solutions, energy storage systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment in the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. The company offers in-house developed, produced, and an assembled range of secondary substations for grid operators; and microgrids and substations, as well as offerings to connect PV farms, EV fast-charging hubs, and industrial companies to the grid. It also provides smart and connected electric vehicle chargers for use at destinations, such as home, retail, workplace, and public locations; and stationary and mobile battery energy storage solutions for use in load balancing, peak shaving, grid frequency control, and energy trading. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alfen N.V reported revenue of €436M in FY2025 versus €250M in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€189K in FY2025.
ALFEN screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →
Peer Group
Electrical Equipment & Parts · 526 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 3750 | HK$675.50 | HK$391.44 | -42% |
| ABB Ltd ABBN | CHF 83.82 | CHF 35.46 | -58% |
| Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company TDED | 10.16 SGD | 1.47 SGD | -86% |
| LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 | 334,000 KRW | 201,455 KRW | -40% |
| WEG S.A WEGE3 | 13,210 ARS | 7,948 ARS | -40% |
| Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 | ¥114.79 | ¥123.83 | +8% |
| Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co 300124 | ¥63.43 | ¥33.04 | -48% |
| HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 | 823,000 KRW | 371,133 KRW | -55% |
| LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 | 190,000 KRW | 31,517 KRW | -83% |
| Sieyuan Electric Co 002028 | ¥151.73 | ¥71.69 | -53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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