Alfresa Holdings (ALFRY) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.4B
Alfresa Holdings
ALFRY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $11.00 (bear) to $14.38 (bull), base $13.46. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.26 – $22.04 · fair‑value band $11.00 – $14.38 · the $13.55 price screens above the $13.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Alfresa Holdings (ALFRY) currently trades at $13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.46, implying the stock looks roughly 0.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alfresa Holdings generated revenue of $3.1T at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.6. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.00 (bear case) to $14.38 (bull case); at $13.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -1%, ALFRY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($15.87) versus Asset-Based ($9.36). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally.
Full company description
Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is also involved in the operation of dispensing pharmacies and conducting related businesses; ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business; self-medication products wholesaling business; and other medical-related businesses. In addition, the company manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients; contract distribution services in hospitals; operation, maintenance, and development of information system; supply of cell raw materials; manufacturing of specific processed cells and regenerative medicine products. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alfresa Holdings reported revenue of $3.0T in FY2025 versus $2.6T in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $27.4B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Medical Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKesson Corporation MCK | $805.96 | $819.31 | +2% |
| Cencora, Inc COR | $303.44 | $175.74 | -42% |
| Cardinal Health, Inc CAH | $224.94 | $141.77 | -37% |
| Henry Schein, Inc HSIC | $87.82 | $74.67 | -15% |
| Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 | ¥16.70 | ¥33.96 | +103% |
| Sinopharm Group 1099 | HK$16.74 | HK$61.33 | +266% |
| Galenica AG GALE | CHF 87.05 | CHF 61.79 | -29% |
| Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 | ¥21.50 | ¥28.65 | +33% |
| Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 | ¥4.99 | ¥9.84 | +97% |
| Asker Healthcare Group ASKER | kr 79.45 | kr 25.69 | -68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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