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Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo $13.44, price $13.55, upside -0.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · ADR

AH Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo

ALFRY · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $13.44 · Fairly valued (−1%)
!Quality 59/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +4.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·3.12% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Narrow moat 26/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.04 $12.26 Fair Value $13.44 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.26 – $22.04 · fair‑value band $6.69 – $13.44 · the $13.55 price screens above the $13.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally.

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Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is also involved in the operation of dispensing pharmacies and conducting related businesses; ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business; self-medication products wholesaling business; and other medical-related businesses. In addition, the company manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients; contract distribution services in hospitals; operation, maintenance, and development of information system; supply of cell raw materials; manufacturing of specific processed cells and regenerative medicine products. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR (ALFRY) currently trades at $13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.44, implying the stock looks roughly 0.8% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.34 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $13.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.30, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $6.69 (bear) to $13.44 (bull), the price of $13.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR reported revenue of ¥3.0T in FY2025 versus ¥2.6T in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥27.4B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.5B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $1.44 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −1%, ALFRY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.69 Fair Value $13.44 Bull $13.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.44 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $10.75 $13.44 $17.11 75
EPV $10.02 $10.93 $11.72 74
ROIC Compounder $10.02 $10.93 $11.72 69
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $10.75 $13.44 $17.11 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.36 $12.50 $16.07 63
PEG = 1.0 $2.13 $3.04 $3.96 55
EPV $10.02 $10.93 $11.72 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $13.01 $17.34 $21.68 63
P/S Multiple $10.05 $13.40 $16.75 58
P/B Multiple $10.05 $13.40 $16.75 55
EV/EBIT $18.21 $22.87 $27.53 66
EV/EBITDA $20.25 $25.59 $30.93 67
EV/Revenue $14.21 $18.48 $22.76 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.94 $9.30 $13.88 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.68 $10.88 $10.62 68
ROIC Compounder $10.02 $10.93 $11.72 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $9.79 $13.99 $18.19 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 83 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)30 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)62 · sector 59

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $891.23 $819.31 −8%
Cencora, Inc COR $314.43 $211.07 −33%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $222.04 $141.77 −36%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $87.43 $76.86 −12%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.06 ¥42.67 +166%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$15.06 HK$58.89 +291%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 83.45 CHF 61.79 −26%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥19.67 ¥26.64 +35%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥4.89 ¥9.84 +101%
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥26.11 ¥58.47 +124%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALFRY

Frequently asked questions

Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.44 versus a price of $13.55, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALFRY?
Our model-based fair value for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is $13.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.55.
What is the quality score of ALFRY?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.69, optimistic scenario $13.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.44, about −1% upside versus a price of $13.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.69, optimistic scenario $13.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR pay a dividend?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR it is $13.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $13.55. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALFRY trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.55, fair value $13.44, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.44). For Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR the two are $0.1100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR worth?
The market values Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $13.55; our models calculate a fair value of $13.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFRY?
Our models span a range for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR: cautious scenario $6.69, base $13.44, optimistic $13.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $13.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFRY?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALFRY from its 52-week high?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR trades at $13.55, about 19% below its 52-week high of $16.81 and 11% above the low of $12.26 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $13.55, calculated fair value $13.44 (−1%), Quality Score 59/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFRY calculated?
We run Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $13.55. Our model-based fair value is $13.44, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($6.69 to $13.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The market capitalisation of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Earnings per share at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR are $1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The dividend yield of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 3.1% (payout 29.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The net margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The operating margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Revenue at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Earnings per share at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR are growing +490% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) generate?
The free cash flow of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR is −¥14.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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