Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo stock $20.86, price $15.82, upside +31.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.26 – $22.04 · fair‑value band $14.53 – $28.99 · the $15.82 price screens below the $20.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally.
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It is also involved in the operation of dispensing pharmacies and conducting related businesses; ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business; self-medication products wholesaling business; and other medical-related businesses.
In addition, the company manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients; contract distribution services in hospitals; operation, maintenance, and development of information system; supply of cell raw materials; manufacturing of specific processed cells and regenerative medicine products.
The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) currently trades at $15.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.86, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.83 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $15.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.75, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.53 (bear) to $28.99 (bull), the price of $15.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR reported revenue of ¥3.1T in FY2026 versus ¥2.6T in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥41.7B in FY2026, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B Mid · P/E ratio 11.3 · EPS (TTM) $1.40 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at 32%, ALFRY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.53Fair Value $20.86Bull$28.99
Price $15.82 · Upside +31.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5905 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 53% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.2% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The Total Supply Chain Service model supports expansion into biosimilars, yet thin margins and negative free cash flow underscore commoditized operations with limited durable advantage.
Main risk: Ongoing investments in new capabilities such as biosimilars are pressuring core operating margins in the pharmaceutical distribution business.
Alfresa is deepening its reach beyond traditional pharmaceutical wholesaling by entering a basic agreement for biosimilar development and manufacturing cooperation. This builds on its Total Supply Chain Service model while core operating margins face pressure from ongoing investments in new capabilities. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the biosimilar push deliver meaningful new revenue streams before it adds further strain to profitability?
Compare Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+31.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALFRY
Frequently asked questions
Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.86 versus a price of $15.82, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALFRY?
Our model-based fair value for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is $20.86 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.82.
What is the quality score of ALFRY?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.86 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.53, optimistic scenario $28.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.86, about +32% upside versus a price of $15.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.53, optimistic scenario $28.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.1T (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR pay a dividend?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo currently shows a dividend yield of 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo pays a dividend of $0.429 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 28.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.84 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo would have to grow free cash flow by +16.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALFRY use?
Our models discount Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo that is +16.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (+16.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.20 %: that much free cash flow Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo it is $20.86 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $15.82. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ALFRY trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.82, fair value $20.86, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.86). For Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo the two are $5.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR worth?
The market values Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $15.82; our models calculate a fair value of $20.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFRY?
Our models span a range for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo: cautious scenario $14.53, base $20.86, optimistic $28.99 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $15.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFRY?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALFRY from its 52-week high?
Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo trades at $15.82, about 6% below its 52-week high of $16.81 and 26% above the low of $12.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $15.82, calculated fair value $20.86 (+32%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFRY calculated?
We run Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $20.86 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.82. Our model-based fair value is $20.86, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo ADR right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($14.53 to $28.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The market capitalisation of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Earnings per share at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo are $1.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The dividend yield of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is 2.7% (payout 30.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The net margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is 1.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
The operating margin of Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Revenue at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo (ALFRY)?
Earnings per share at Alfresa Holdings Corp Tokyo are growing −49.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026