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Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., (ALKLC) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TR · Market cap 45.0B TRY

AG Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., ALKLC · IS
Price401.50 TRY
Fair Value75.40 TRY
Upside-81.2%
Quality52/100
Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -3.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Narrow moat 31/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 52.01 TRY – 88.87 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 8 valuation models · updated today

Share price +15.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (88.87 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

450.00 TRY 17.89 TRY Fair Value 75.40 TRY Jun 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range 17.89 TRY – 450.00 TRY · fair‑value band 52.01 TRY – 88.87 TRY · the 401.50 TRY price screens above the 75.40 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., (ALKLC) currently trades at 401.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 75.40 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 81.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., generated revenue of 5.2B TRY at a net margin of -3.5%. Revenue grew 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.5%. Net debt stands at 1.9B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 52.01 TRY (bear case) to 88.87 TRY (bull case); at 401.50 TRY, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -81%, ALKLC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder 74.71 TRY 122.99 TRY 156.36 TRY 72
Gordon GGM 0.3000 TRY 0.6200 TRY 0.9900 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.3000 TRY 0.5200 TRY 0.6500 TRY 61
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 54.02 TRY 63.10 TRY 71.05 TRY 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.3000 TRY 0.6200 TRY 0.9900 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.3000 TRY 0.5200 TRY 0.6500 TRY 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT 97.31 TRY 129.90 TRY 162.49 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 79.53 TRY 106.19 TRY 132.86 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 65.44 TRY 93.69 TRY 121.93 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 11.83 TRY 15.85 TRY 23.66 TRY 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 74.71 TRY 122.99 TRY 156.36 TRY 72

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (122.99 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (0.5200 TRY). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.2B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.9%
Net margin -3.5%
Return on equity -7.5%
Free cash flow −913M TRY FY2025
Operating margin 18.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -1.07 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) -26.3%
Net debt 1.9B TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and sells dairy products in Turkey and internationally. The company offers ezine, classic, sheep's, izmir tulum, white, and Kashar cheese; kefir; kefir yogurt; aged kashar; and cheesecolata.

Full company description

Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and sells dairy products in Turkey and internationally. The company offers ezine, classic, sheep's, izmir tulum, white, and Kashar cheese; kefir; kefir yogurt; aged kashar; and cheesecolata. It also engages in marketing and sale of milk; cardboard, plastic, and glass businesses; and establishing, operating, renting, and leasing of facilities for the purchasing, selling, and packaging of foodstuff. Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., reported revenue of 5.0B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.3B TRY in FY2021, a compound +40.2%/yr. Reported net income was −122M TRY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.0B TRY
Latest YoY
+17.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+47.5%
Revenue +40.2%/yr
FY21 1.3B TRY
FY22 1.6B TRY
FY23 2.7B TRY
FY24 4.2B TRY
FY25 5.0B TRY
Net income
FY21 145M TRY
FY22 4.3M TRY
FY23 79.9M TRY
FY24 30.2M TRY
FY25 −122M TRY

ALKLC screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALKLC

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 669 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.36× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 25
FUTURE 80 · sector 20
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 46

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Uni-President Enterprises Corp 1216 79.00 TWD 68.72 TWD -13%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., (ALKLC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 75.40 TRY versus a price of 401.50 TRY, about −81% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALKLC?
Our model-based fair value for Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., is 75.40 TRY (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 401.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALKLC?
Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., has a Quality Score of 52/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., (ALKLC)?
Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALKLC?
The net profit margin of Altinkilic Gida ve Sut Sanayi Ticaret A.S., is about -3.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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