AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp PHP 0.40, price PHP 1.14, upside -64.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.03 PHP – 6.73 PHP · fair‑value band 0.3500 PHP – 0.4000 PHP · the 1.14 PHP price screens above the 0.4000 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC) currently trades at 1.14 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.4000 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 185.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 0.8700 PHP per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the 1.14 PHP price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.2500 PHP, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.3500 PHP (bear) to 0.4000 PHP (bull), the price of 1.14 PHP sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp reported revenue of 5.2B PHP in FY2024 versus 3.7B PHP in FY2020, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 701M PHP in FY2024, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 26.6B PHP (≈ $426M) · P/E ratio 39.1 · P/S ratio 5.28 · EPS (TTM) 0.1123 PHP · Net margin 13.5% · Return on equity 617% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −65%, ALLHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.3500 PHPFair Value 0.4000 PHPBull 0.4000 PHP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1123 PHP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 28%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Operations · 37 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)39.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 73
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 93
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.4000 PHP versus a price of 1.14 PHP, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALLHC?
Our model-based fair value for AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 0.4000 PHP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.14 PHP.
What is the quality score of ALLHC?
AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.4000 PHP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.3500 PHP, optimistic scenario 0.4000 PHP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.4000 PHP, about −65% upside versus a price of 1.14 PHP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.3500 PHP, optimistic scenario 0.4000 PHP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp it is 0.4000 PHP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1.14 PHP. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALLHC trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.14 PHP, fair value 0.4000 PHP, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALLHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.14 PHP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.4000 PHP). For AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp the two are 0.7400 PHP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp worth?
The market values AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp at about 26.6B PHP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1.14 PHP; our models calculate a fair value of 0.4000 PHP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALLHC?
Our models span a range for AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp: cautious scenario 0.3500 PHP, base 0.4000 PHP, optimistic 0.4000 PHP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1.14 PHP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALLHC?
AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.4000 PHP is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALLHC from its 52-week high?
AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp trades at 1.14 PHP, about 27% below its 52-week high of 1.56 PHP and 11% above the low of 1.03 PHP (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.4000 PHP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value SMPH, AC, ALI, MEG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1.14 PHP, calculated fair value 0.4000 PHP (−65%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALLHC calculated?
We run AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.4000 PHP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1.14 PHP. Our model-based fair value is 0.4000 PHP, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.4000 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (0.3500 PHP to 0.4000 PHP), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
The market capitalisation of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 26.6B PHP (≈ $426M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 5.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
Earnings per share at AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp are 0.1123 PHP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
The net margin of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 13.5% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 617% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp (ALLHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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