Megaron SA (MEG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Megaron SA PLN 2.16, price PLN 6.05, upside -64.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 2.16 PLN · Strongly overvalued (−64%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −2.3 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · 0.0% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.3%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Narrow moat27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.78 PLN – 18.44 PLN · fair‑value band 1.88 PLN – 2.40 PLN · the 6.05 PLN price screens above the 2.16 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Megaron S.A. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction materials for interior finishing works in Poland and internationally. The company's products portfolio comprises gypsum plasters, ready-made polymer plasters, putty plasters, decorative liquids, plaster adhesives, dispersion adhesives, and emulsions.
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Megaron S.A. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction materials for interior finishing works in Poland and internationally. The company's products portfolio comprises gypsum plasters, ready-made polymer plasters, putty plasters, decorative liquids, plaster adhesives, dispersion adhesives, and emulsions. It serves construction chains and wholesalers. Megaron S.A. is headquartered in Szczecin, Poland.
Stock analysis
Megaron SA (MEG) currently trades at 6.05 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.16 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 180.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6.82 PLN per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the 6.05 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.3300 PLN, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.88 PLN (bear) to 2.40 PLN (bull), the price of 6.05 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Megaron SA reported revenue of 40.0M PLN in FY2025 versus 47.5M PLN in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 106K PLN in FY2025, compounding −50.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 18.9M PLN (≈ $4.9M) · P/E ratio 327.5 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) −0.0100 PLN · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity −0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −64%, MEG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.88 PLNFair Value 2.16 PLNBull 2.40 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0146 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−48.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−48.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 256 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)327.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA2.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Megaron SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEG
Frequently asked questions
Is Megaron SA (MEG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.16 PLN versus a price of 6.05 PLN, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEG?
Our model-based fair value for Megaron SA is 2.16 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.05 PLN.
What is the quality score of MEG?
Megaron SA has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Megaron SA (MEG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.16 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.88 PLN, optimistic scenario 2.40 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Megaron SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.16 PLN, about −64% upside versus a price of 6.05 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.88 PLN, optimistic scenario 2.40 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Megaron SA (MEG)?
Megaron SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.4M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Megaron SA (MEG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Megaron SA would have to grow free cash flow by -14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEG use?
Our models discount Megaron SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Megaron SA that is -14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Megaron SA (MEG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Megaron SA grew -2.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Megaron SA (MEG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Megaron SA (-14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.25 %: that much free cash flow Megaron SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Megaron SA (MEG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Megaron SA it is 2.16 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 6.05 PLN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Megaron SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MEG trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.05 PLN, fair value 2.16 PLN, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.05 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.16 PLN). For Megaron SA the two are 3.89 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Megaron SA worth?
The market values Megaron SA at about 18.9M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 6.05 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 2.16 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEG?
Our models span a range for Megaron SA: cautious scenario 1.88 PLN, base 2.16 PLN, optimistic 2.40 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 6.05 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEG?
Megaron SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 327.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.16 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Megaron SA (MEG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Megaron SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −0.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEG from its 52-week high?
Megaron SA trades at 6.05 PLN, about 18% below its 52-week high of 7.40 PLN and 23% above the low of 4.90 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.16 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Megaron SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Megaron SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 6.05 PLN, calculated fair value 2.16 PLN (−64%), Quality Score 59/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEG calculated?
We run Megaron SA through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.16 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Megaron SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 6.05 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 2.16 PLN, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Megaron SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.40 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Megaron SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The market capitalisation of Megaron SA is 18.9M PLN (≈ $4.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Megaron SA is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Megaron SA (MEG)?
Earnings per share at Megaron SA are −0.0100 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 327.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The net margin of Megaron SA is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Megaron SA is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Megaron SA (MEG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Megaron SA is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Megaron SA (MEG)?
The operating margin of Megaron SA is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Megaron SA (MEG)?
Revenue at Megaron SA is growing −12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Megaron SA (MEG)?
Earnings per share at Megaron SA are growing −25.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Megaron SA (MEG) carry?
The net debt of Megaron SA is 364K PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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