Almirall S.A. (ALM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Almirall S.A. €4.67, price €10.40, upside -55.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.13 – €13.73 · fair‑value band €3.50 – €5.84 · the €10.40 price screens above the €4.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Almirall, S.A. operates as a skin health-focused biopharmaceutical company in Spain, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, Asia, and Africa.
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Almirall, S.A. operates as a skin health-focused biopharmaceutical company in Spain, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, Asia, and Africa. The company offers its products for skin diseases comprising Psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, acne, actinic keratosis, onychomycosis, androgenic alopecia, oncodermatology, and orphan indications, as well as for alimentary tract and metabolism, anti-infective for systemic use, cardiovascular system, dermatological, genito urinary system and sex hormones, immunostimulants, metabolism, musculo-skeletal system, nervous system, respiratory system, systemic hormonal preparations. It also develops tirbanibulin for actinic keratosis, and tildrakizumab for psoriatic arthritis under the registration phase, as well as lebrikizumab for atopic dermatitis pediatric in phase 2; Anti-IL-1RAP mAb for hidradenitis suppurativa, anti-IL-1RAP mAb for inflammatory skin disease, Anti-IL-21 mAb for hidradenitis suppurativa, IL-2muFc for alopecia areata, IL-2muFc for atopic dermatitis, and IL-2muFc for inflammatory skin disease in phase 2; readthrough inducer for rare dermatology in phase 1; and anti-IL-13/OX40L BsAb for atopic dermatitis, SMOL oral for Th2-driven diseases, and mRNA/LNP for non-melanoma skin cancer in preclinical stage. It has research and development agreements with Evotec, Ichnos, Simcere, Etherna, Novo Nordisk, and Eloxx. The company was formerly known as Laboratorios Almirall, S.A. and changed its name to Almirall, S.A. in May 2009. Almirall, S.A. was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.
Stock analysis
Almirall S.A. (ALM) currently trades at €10.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.67, implying the stock looks roughly 122.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €7.28 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the €10.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.60, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.50 (bear) to €5.84 (bull), the price of €10.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Almirall S.A. reported revenue of €1.1B in FY2025 versus €827M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was €46.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.2B · P/E ratio 56.2 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) €0.1900 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −55%, ALM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.50Fair Value €4.67Bull €5.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0282 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15% vs −12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
2025 sits 500% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price and +7.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−55% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)56.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.71× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF18.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.30× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Almirall S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALM
Frequently asked questions
Is Almirall S.A. (ALM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.67 versus a price of €10.40, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALM?
Our model-based fair value for Almirall S.A. is €4.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.40.
What is the quality score of ALM?
Almirall S.A. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.50, optimistic scenario €5.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Almirall S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.67, about −55% upside versus a price of €10.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.50, optimistic scenario €5.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Almirall S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Almirall S.A. pay a dividend?
Almirall S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Almirall S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALM use?
Our models discount Almirall S.A. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Almirall S.A. that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Almirall S.A. (ALM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Almirall S.A. grew -7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Almirall S.A. (ALM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Almirall S.A. (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.01 %: that much free cash flow Almirall S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Almirall S.A. it is €4.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €10.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Almirall S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALM trades above its calculated fair value: price €10.40, fair value €4.67, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.67). For Almirall S.A. the two are €5.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Almirall S.A. worth?
The market values Almirall S.A. at about €2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €10.40; our models calculate a fair value of €4.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALM?
Our models span a range for Almirall S.A.: cautious scenario €3.50, base €4.67, optimistic €5.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €10.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALM?
Almirall S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.7, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ALM?
The PEG ratio of Almirall S.A. is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Almirall S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALM from its 52-week high?
Almirall S.A. trades at €10.40, about 24% below its 52-week high of €13.64 and 3% above the low of €10.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Almirall S.A.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Almirall S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €10.40, calculated fair value €4.67 (−55%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALM calculated?
We run Almirall S.A. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Almirall S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €10.40. Our model-based fair value is €4.67, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Almirall S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Almirall S.A. (ALM) come from?
Earnings per share at Almirall S.A. grew −21.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin −18.5 %, tax rate −4.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Almirall S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The market capitalisation of Almirall S.A. is €2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Almirall S.A. is 2.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Earnings per share at Almirall S.A. are €0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The dividend yield of Almirall S.A. is 1.5% (payout 79.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The net margin of Almirall S.A. is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Almirall S.A. is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Almirall S.A. is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
The operating margin of Almirall S.A. is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Revenue at Almirall S.A. is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Almirall S.A. (ALM)?
Earnings per share at Almirall S.A. are growing +138% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Almirall S.A. (ALM) carry?
The net debt of Almirall S.A. is €5.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026