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NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NFL Biosciences SAS €0.19, price €0.76, upside -75.2%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · FR · ISIN FR0014003XT0

NB Thin data Sep 23, 2026

NFL Biosciences SAS

ALNFL · PA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €0.1870 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +5.7 %/yr)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€4.75 €0.6480 Fair Value €0.1870 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.6480 – €4.75 · fair‑value band €0.1700 – €0.2295 · the €0.7550 price screens above the €0.1870 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

NFL Biosciences SA, a biotechnology company, engages in the development of botanical drugs in France. The company's pipeline includes NFL-101, a drug candidate for smoking cessation, currently under Phase 2b clinical trials; and NFL-301, a drug candidate for reducing alcohol consumption which is in preclinical stage.

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NFL Biosciences SA, a biotechnology company, engages in the development of botanical drugs in France. The company's pipeline includes NFL-101, a drug candidate for smoking cessation, currently under Phase 2b clinical trials; and NFL-301, a drug candidate for reducing alcohol consumption which is in preclinical stage. It has scientific collaboration with McLean Hospital to deepen the understanding of the mechanism of action of NFL-101, its proprietary botanical drug candidate for smoking cessation. NFL Biosciences SA was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Castelnau-le-Lez, France.

Stock analysis

NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) currently trades at €0.7550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.1870, implying the stock looks roughly 303.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €0.2400 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the €0.7550 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.0200, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €0.1700 (bear) to €0.2295 (bull), the price of €0.7550 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

NFL Biosciences SAS reported revenue of €0 in FY2025 versus €39 in FY2021. Reported net income was −€3.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €10.8M · EPS (TTM) €−0.2600 · Return on equity −517% · Return on assets (EBIT) −89.0% · Operating margin −5,838,227% · Revenue (TTM) €188 · Revenue growth (YoY) +400% · Free cash flow €105K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −75%, ALNFL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.1700 Fair Value €0.1870 Bull €0.2295
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €0.2100 €0.2400 €0.3000 80
Growth DCF €0.2100 €0.2400 €0.2900 78
NCAV (Graham) €0.0100 €0.0200 €0.0200 55
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.2100 €0.2400 €0.3000 80
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.0100 €0.0200 €0.0200 55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.2100 €0.2400 €0.2900 78

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−100.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10,600,933.3% (2020) → −6,065,415.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.4% a year for the price.

ALNFL screens 304% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 649 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −67% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 400% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.42× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 40.23× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 117.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)29 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $516.34 $567.97 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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€0.1870 −304%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NFL Biosciences SAS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALNFL

Frequently asked questions

Is NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.1870 versus a price of €0.7550, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALNFL?
Our model-based fair value for NFL Biosciences SAS is €0.1870 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.7550.
What is the quality score of ALNFL?
NFL Biosciences SAS has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.1870 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.1700, optimistic scenario €0.2295. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NFL Biosciences SAS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.1870, about −75% upside versus a price of €0.7550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.1700, optimistic scenario €0.2295. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
NFL Biosciences SAS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €188 (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NFL Biosciences SAS would have to grow free cash flow by +38.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +97.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALNFL use?
Our models discount NFL Biosciences SAS at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NFL Biosciences SAS that is +38.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at NFL Biosciences SAS grew +97.9 % a year. The price currently implies +38.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NFL Biosciences SAS (+38.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.10 %: that much free cash flow NFL Biosciences SAS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NFL Biosciences SAS it is €0.1870 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €0.7550. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NFL Biosciences SAS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALNFL trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.7550, fair value €0.1870, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALNFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.7550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.1870). For NFL Biosciences SAS the two are €0.5680 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NFL Biosciences SAS worth?
The market values NFL Biosciences SAS at about €10.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €0.7550; our models calculate a fair value of €0.1870 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALNFL?
Our models span a range for NFL Biosciences SAS: cautious scenario €0.1700, base €0.1870, optimistic €0.2295 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €0.7550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for NFL Biosciences SAS (as of Sep 23, 2026): debt of 1.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALNFL from its 52-week high?
NFL Biosciences SAS trades at €0.7550, about 54% below its 52-week high of €1.65 and 3% above the low of €0.7310 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.1870 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NFL Biosciences SAS?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NFL Biosciences SAS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €0.7550, calculated fair value €0.1870 (−75%), Quality Score 32/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALNFL calculated?
We run NFL Biosciences SAS through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.1870, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NFL Biosciences SAS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €0.7550. Our model-based fair value is €0.1870, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NFL Biosciences SAS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.2295). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of NFL Biosciences SAS

How large is the market capitalisation of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
The market capitalisation of NFL Biosciences SAS is €10.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
Earnings per share at NFL Biosciences SAS are €−0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NFL Biosciences SAS is −517% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NFL Biosciences SAS is −89.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
The operating margin of NFL Biosciences SAS is −5,838,227% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL)?
Revenue at NFL Biosciences SAS is growing +400% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does NFL Biosciences SAS (ALNFL) hold?
NFL Biosciences SAS holds more cash than debt, €1.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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