Alior Bank SA (ALORY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alior Bank SA $19.41, price $18.50, upside +4.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities.
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Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities. It offers retail products, including cash loans, credit cards, current account overdraft facilities, and mortgage loans; term and savings deposits; brokerage products and investment funds; personal accounts; cash deposits, withdrawals, and transfers; and currency exchange transactions. The company also provides corporate products, such as overdraft limits in current accounts, working capital loans, investment loans, and credit cards; current and subsidiary accounts; term deposits; cash deposits and withdrawals and transfers; FX exchange transactions; derivative instruments; and leasing and factoring. In addition, it offers bills, trade finance, internet banking, and operating and financial leasing services, as well as issues commercial bonds. In addition, it offers retirement pension products and investments fund services, as well as operates currency trading platforms. Further, it provides stock broking, financial advisory, intermediation, and other financial services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Alior Bank SA ADR (ALORY) currently trades at $18.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.41, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $18.72 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $18.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.55, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $14.67 (bear) to $29.42 (bull), the price of $18.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alior Bank SA ADR reported revenue of 8.0B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +20.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B PLN in FY2025, compounding +47.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $4.8B · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) $2.44 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin 28.4% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 5%, ALORY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.67Fair Value $19.41Bull $29.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.85 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+52.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44.1% vs 17.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 35%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in PLN, Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.5% a year for the price and −5.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (16 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+41.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alior Bank SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALORY
Frequently asked questions
Is Alior Bank SA (ALORY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.41 versus a price of $18.50, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALORY?
Our model-based fair value for Alior Bank SA ADR is $19.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.50.
What is the quality score of ALORY?
Alior Bank SA ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.67, optimistic scenario $29.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alior Bank SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.41, about +5% upside versus a price of $18.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $14.67, optimistic scenario $29.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Alior Bank SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alior Bank SA ADR pay a dividend?
Alior Bank SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alior Bank SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALORY use?
Our models discount Alior Bank SA ADR at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alior Bank SA ADR that is -16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alior Bank SA (ALORY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alior Bank SA ADR grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies -16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alior Bank SA (ALORY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alior Bank SA ADR (-16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.74 %: that much free cash flow Alior Bank SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alior Bank SA ADR it is $19.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alior Bank SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALORY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.50, fair value $19.41, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALORY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.41). For Alior Bank SA ADR the two are $0.9100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alior Bank SA ADR worth?
The market values Alior Bank SA ADR at about $4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.50; our models calculate a fair value of $19.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALORY?
Our models span a range for Alior Bank SA ADR: cautious scenario $14.67, base $19.41, optimistic $29.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALORY?
Alior Bank SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alior Bank SA ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALORY from its 52-week high?
Alior Bank SA ADR trades at $18.50, at its 52-week high of $18.50 and 38% above the low of $13.43 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alior Bank SA ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alior Bank SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.50, calculated fair value $19.41 (+5%), Quality Score 59/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALORY calculated?
We run Alior Bank SA ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alior Bank SA ADR currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.50. Our model-based fair value is $19.41, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alior Bank SA ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($14.67 to $29.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alior Bank SA (ALORY) come from?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank SA ADR grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +9.6 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alior Bank SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The market capitalisation of Alior Bank SA ADR is $4.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alior Bank SA ADR is 2.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank SA ADR are $2.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The dividend yield of Alior Bank SA ADR is 8.5% (payout 64.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The net margin of Alior Bank SA ADR is 28.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alior Bank SA ADR is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alior Bank SA ADR is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Revenue at Alior Bank SA ADR is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alior Bank SA (ALORY)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank SA ADR are growing −15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alior Bank SA (ALORY) hold?
Alior Bank SA ADR holds more cash than debt, 765M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026