Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Altius Minerals Corporation C$46.50, price C$66.11, upside -29.7%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$14.07 – C$68.70 · fair‑value band C$25.96 – C$81.32 · the C$66.11 price screens above the C$46.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation.
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Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation. It owns royalty and streaming interests in 11 operating mines covering copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, potash, and iron ore. The company is also involved in the acquisition and management of renewable energy investments and royalties, as well as early-stage royalties and minority equity or project interests. Altius Minerals Corporation was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in St. John's, Canada.
Stock analysis
Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) currently trades at C$66.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$46.50, 29.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$208.24 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$66.11 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$4.86, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$25.96 (bear) to C$81.32 (bull), the price of C$66.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Altius Minerals Corporation reported revenue of C$40.5M in FY2025 versus C$81.7M in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$299M in FY2025, compounding +65.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$3.1B (≈ $2.2B) · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 77.8 · EPS (TTM) C$6.26 · Net margin 62.8% · Return on equity 40.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 33.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, ALS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (C$1.09 to C$254.03). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear C$25.96Fair Value C$46.50Bull C$81.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$4.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+62.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 27%
2025 sits 698% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 449 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)40.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)62.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)33.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth75.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$46.50 versus a price of C$66.11, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALS?
Our model-based fair value for Altius Minerals Corporation is C$46.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$66.11.
What is the quality score of ALS?
Altius Minerals Corporation has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$46.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$25.96, optimistic scenario C$81.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Altius Minerals Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$46.50, about −30% upside versus a price of C$66.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$25.96, optimistic scenario C$81.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Altius Minerals Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$50.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Altius Minerals Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +38.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALS use?
Our models discount Altius Minerals Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Altius Minerals Corporation that is +38.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Altius Minerals Corporation grew -7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +38.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Altius Minerals Corporation (+38.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.84 %: that much free cash flow Altius Minerals Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Altius Minerals Corporation it is C$46.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$66.11. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Altius Minerals Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ALS trades above its calculated fair value: price C$66.11, fair value C$46.50, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$66.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$46.50). For Altius Minerals Corporation the two are C$19.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Altius Minerals Corporation worth?
The market values Altius Minerals Corporation at about C$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$66.11; our models calculate a fair value of C$46.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALS?
Our models span a range for Altius Minerals Corporation: cautious scenario C$25.96, base C$46.50, optimistic C$81.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$66.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALS?
Altius Minerals Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$46.50 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Altius Minerals Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 40.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALS from its 52-week high?
Altius Minerals Corporation trades at C$66.11, about 4% below its 52-week high of C$68.70 and 106% above the low of C$32.15 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$46.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Altius Minerals Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Altius Minerals Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$66.11, calculated fair value C$46.50 (−30%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALS calculated?
We run Altius Minerals Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$46.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Altius Minerals Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$66.11. Our model-based fair value is C$46.50, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Altius Minerals Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$25.96 to C$81.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Altius Minerals Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The market capitalisation of Altius Minerals Corporation is C$3.1B (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Altius Minerals Corporation is 77.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Earnings per share at Altius Minerals Corporation are C$6.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The net margin of Altius Minerals Corporation is 62.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Altius Minerals Corporation is 40.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Altius Minerals Corporation is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
The operating margin of Altius Minerals Corporation is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Revenue at Altius Minerals Corporation is growing +75.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS)?
Earnings per share at Altius Minerals Corporation are growing −61.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS) hold?
Altius Minerals Corporation holds more cash than debt, C$206M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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