Winamp Group (ALWIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · Market cap €8.9M
Fair value as of: Jun 23, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 48 days ago
Share price −3.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 72% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.1360). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1792 – €3.95 · fair‑value band €0.0850 – €0.1360 · the €0.3890 price screens above the €0.1105 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
Analysis
Winamp Group (ALWIN) currently trades at €0.3890, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.1105, implying the stock looks roughly 71.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €1.8M. Revenue declined 25.8% year over year. Net debt stands at €12.0M. Fundamentals as of Jun 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.0850 (bear case) to €0.1360 (bull case); at €0.3890, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -72%, ALWIN screens richer than that median.
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 13 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Winamp Group SA is involved in the digital music business in Belgium, the rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers Winamp, an audio player; Bridger, a copyright management solution for artists; and a range of digital and music radios comprising various themed stations.
Full company description
Winamp Group SA is involved in the digital music business in Belgium, the rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers Winamp, an audio player; Bridger, a copyright management solution for artists; and a range of digital and music radios comprising various themed stations. It also provides solutions to artists for their music promotion, distribution, and licensing. The company was formerly known as Llama Group SA and changed its name to Winamp Group SA in October 2025. Winamp Group SA was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Winamp Group reported revenue of €1.8M in FY2025 versus €28.3M in FY2021, a compound −50.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€6.9M in FY2025.
ALWIN screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $109.50 | $66.96 | -39% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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