Arrow Minerals Limited (AMD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$21.9M
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Share price +57.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0102). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0100 to A$0.0102), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0030 – A$0.1800 · fair‑value band A$0.0100 – A$0.0102 · the A$0.0110 price screens above the A$0.0101 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Analysis
Arrow Minerals Limited (AMD) currently trades at A$0.0110, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0101, implying the stock looks roughly 8.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$102K. Revenue declined 24.1% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$2.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0100 (bear case) to A$0.0102 (bull case); at A$0.0110, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -8%, AMD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arrow Minerals Limited engages in the development and exploration of mineral deposits in Australia and West Africa. The company primarily explores for gold, copper, and iron deposits. It holds 33.3% beneficial interest in the Simandou North Iron project comprising exploration permit 22,967 located in northern end of the Simandou Range.
Full company description
Arrow Minerals Limited engages in the development and exploration of mineral deposits in Australia and West Africa. The company primarily explores for gold, copper, and iron deposits. It holds 33.3% beneficial interest in the Simandou North Iron project comprising exploration permit 22,967 located in northern end of the Simandou Range. The Company has an option to acquire the Niagara Bauxite Project, and option to acquire 80% interest in the Yarraloola Copper Project located in the Pilbara of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Segue Resources Limited and changed its name to Arrow Minerals Limited in December 2017. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arrow Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$58.8K in FY2024 versus A$540 in FY2020, a compound +223.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.8M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 484 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$63.71 | A$42.33 | -34% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $13.63 | $8.95 | -34% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | -12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $65.95 | $31.92 | -52% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | -11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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