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Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Applied Materials, Inc €331, price €480, upside -30.9%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Applied Materials, Inc
AP2 · XETRAGreat Company, Expensive PriceQuality growthHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value €331.38 · Overvalued (−30.9%)
✓Quality 76/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 91/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €73.71 – €640.80 · fair‑value band €188.44 – €434.04 · the €479.85 price screens above the €331.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments.
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Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock analysis
Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) currently trades at €479.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €331.38, 30.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €169.07 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €479.85 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €67.74, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €188.44 (bear) to €434.04 (bull), the price of €479.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Applied Materials, Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $7.0B in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €388B · P/E ratio 51.5 · P/S ratio 12.7 · EPS (TTM) €9.32 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity 39.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −31%, AP2 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €188.44
Fair Value €331.38
Bull €434.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then (€6.84 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€88.85
€160.37
€288.00
77
Growth DCF
€88.85
€156.69
€277.31
75
EPV
€68.19
€80.07
€90.62
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€88.85
€160.37
€288.00
77
Owner Earnings
€81.01
€146.16
€262.42
73
5Y Revenue Exit
€85.54
€149.35
€235.42
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€111.71
€202.49
€315.74
73
5Y P/E Exit
€132.38
€244.46
€371.88
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€83.02
€144.65
€237.70
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
€103.63
€184.15
€305.48
66
10Y P/E Exit
€117.56
€215.34
€352.86
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€53.24
€233.65
€319.75
64
Lynch FV
€60.34
€86.20
€112.06
61
PEG = 1.0
€60.34
€86.20
€112.06
57
EPV
€68.19
€80.07
€90.62
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€14.89
€32.52
€54.71
65
DDM Multi-Stage
€14.89
€26.64
€33.89
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€164.42
€219.23
€274.03
63
P/S Multiple
€99.83
€133.10
€166.38
58
P/B Multiple
€99.83
€133.10
€166.38
55
EV/EBIT
€167.81
€223.45
€279.10
66
EV/EBITDA
€132.65
€176.57
€220.49
67
EV/Revenue
€85.27
€121.44
€157.61
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€11.42
€15.30
€22.84
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€88.85
€156.69
€277.31
75
Rev-Margin DCF
€85.54
€147.81
€226.83
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€48.30
€67.74
€144.13
70
ROIC Compounder
€76.33
€100.72
€131.21
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€118.35
€169.07
€219.79
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
76/100
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.2% vs 22.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+21.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.2% a year for the price and +18.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+17.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+27.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+23.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+20.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+17.6%
AP2 screens overvalued: fair value 31% below the price. Compare with ASML Holding →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Qnity Electronics, Inc Q | $124.69 | $70.44 | −44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €331.38 versus a price of €479.85, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AP2?
Our model-based fair value for Applied Materials, Inc is €331.38 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €479.85.
What is the quality score of AP2?
Applied Materials, Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €331.38 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €188.44, optimistic scenario €434.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applied Materials, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €331.38, about −31% upside versus a price of €479.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €188.44, optimistic scenario €434.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Applied Materials, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Applied Materials, Inc pay a dividend?
Applied Materials, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Applied Materials, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +35.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AP2 use?
Our models discount Applied Materials, Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Applied Materials, Inc that is +35.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Applied Materials, Inc grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Applied Materials, Inc (+35.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.31 %: that much free cash flow Applied Materials, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applied Materials, Inc it is €331.38 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €479.85. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applied Materials, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, AP2 trades above its calculated fair value: price €479.85, fair value €331.38, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AP2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€479.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€331.38). For Applied Materials, Inc the two are €148.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applied Materials, Inc worth?
The market values Applied Materials, Inc at about €388B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €479.85; our models calculate a fair value of €331.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AP2?
Our models span a range for Applied Materials, Inc: cautious scenario €188.44, base €331.38, optimistic €434.04 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €479.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AP2 from its 52-week high?
Applied Materials, Inc trades at €479.85, about 25% below its 52-week high of €640.80 and 161% above the low of €184.01 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €331.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Applied Materials, Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Applied Materials, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €479.85, calculated fair value €331.38 (−31%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AP2 calculated?
We run Applied Materials, Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €331.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Applied Materials, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €479.85. Our model-based fair value is €331.38, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applied Materials, Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€434.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (€188.44 to €434.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) come from?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials, Inc grew +24.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.6 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Applied Materials, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The market capitalisation of Applied Materials, Inc is €388B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Applied Materials, Inc is 51.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Applied Materials, Inc is 12.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials, Inc are €9.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The dividend yield of Applied Materials, Inc is 0.4% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The net margin of Applied Materials, Inc is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applied Materials, Inc is 39.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applied Materials, Inc is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
The operating margin of Applied Materials, Inc is 31.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Revenue at Applied Materials, Inc is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Applied Materials, Inc (AP2)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials, Inc are growing +33.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Applied Materials, Inc (AP2) hold?
Applied Materials, Inc holds more cash than debt, $686M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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