Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd $3.23, price $9.52, upside -66.1%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.55 – $16.71 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $3.23 · the $9.52 price screens above the $3.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets specialty and branded pharmaceutical products in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Europe CIS, Australasia, and Asia. It operates through Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments.
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Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets specialty and branded pharmaceutical products in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Europe CIS, Australasia, and Asia. It operates through Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. The company offers injectables for therapeutic areas, such as anaesthetics, anticoagulants, antithrombotic agents, analgesics, and hormone replacement medicines under the Arixtra, Diprivan, Fraxiparine, Marcaine, Sustanon, and Xylocaine brands; over-the-counter medicines under the Emla, Maltofer, Ovestin, Solpadeine, and Xylocaine brands; and prescription products for anti-inflammatories, immunosuppressants, hypothyroidism, anti-gout, analgesics, and corticosteroids under the Eltroxin, Imuran, Lipitor, Lyrica, and Zyloric brands. It also manufactures active pharmaceutical ingredients, finished dose forms, and heparins, as well as steriles, oral solid doses, liquids, semi-solids, and biologicals. The company exports its products. Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR (APNHY) currently trades at $9.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.23, 66.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.70 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $9.52 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.54, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $3.23 (bull), the price of $9.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of 43.4B ZAR in FY2025 versus 37.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2500 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin −2.5% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −66%, APNHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.01Fair Value $3.23Bull $3.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
18.3% (2020) → 3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.4% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 600 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−19.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.23 versus a price of $9.52, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APNHY?
Our model-based fair value for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is $3.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.52.
What is the quality score of APNHY?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $3.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.23, about −66% upside versus a price of $9.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $3.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 42.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APNHY use?
Our models discount Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 %: that much free cash flow Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR it is $3.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.52. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, APNHY trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.52, fair value $3.23, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APNHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.23). For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $6.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.52; our models calculate a fair value of $3.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APNHY?
Our models span a range for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $1.01, base $3.23, optimistic $3.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.2%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APNHY from its 52-week high?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $9.52, about 5% below its 52-week high of $10.05 and 78% above the low of $5.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.52, calculated fair value $3.23 (−66%), Quality Score 38/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APNHY calculated?
We run Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.52. Our model-based fair value is $3.23, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.01 to $3.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR grew +0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The market capitalisation of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR are $−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The dividend yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is 1.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The net margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is −2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
The operating margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Revenue at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR are growing −38.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APNHY) carry?
The net debt of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd ADR is 29.7B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026