Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ARAFF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $1.0B
Arafura Rare Earths Limited
ARAFF · US
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −17.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $0.1100 – $0.3300 · fair‑value band $0.0340 – $0.0595 · the $0.1520 price screens above the $0.0510 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ARAFF) currently trades at $0.1520, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0510, implying the stock looks roughly 66.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $1.5M. Revenue grew 56.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $26.9M. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0340 (bear case) to $0.0595 (bull case); at $0.1520, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -66%, ARAFF screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Arafura Rare Earths Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It focuses on the production of rare earth products, such as neodymium-praseodymium and mixed middle-heavy rare earths oxides. The company's flagship project is the Nolans project, a rare earths-phosphate-uranium-thorium deposit located in Northern Territory, Australia. The company was formerly known as Arafura Resources Limited and changed its name to Arafura Rare Earths Limited in October 2022. Arafura Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2015 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arafura Rare Earths Limited reported revenue of $127K in FY2019 versus $615K in FY2015, a compound −32.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$19.2M in FY2025.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.