BHP Group (BHPLF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $225B
BHP Group
BHPLF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −7.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $20.57 – $47.02 · fair‑value band $19.08 – $37.72 · the $40.91 price screens above the $30.11 fair value. As of Jul 14, 2026.
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BHP Group (BHPLF) currently trades at $40.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.11, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BHP Group generated revenue of $54.0B at a net margin of 19.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.7%. Net debt stands at $12.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.08 (bear case) to $37.72 (bull case); at $40.91, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -26%, BHPLF screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BHP Group reported revenue of $51.3B in FY2025 versus $56.9B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $9.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- Is First Majestic Silver's (TSX:AG) Bigger 2026 Bet Reframing Its Entire Capital Allocation Playbook?
- BHP Group (BHP) Secures Environmental Permit for $1.3B Escondida Expansion
- Is BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Cheap Following Leadership Changes And Copper Project Progress?
- Mogotes Metals Drills 180 m at 0.98% Copper Equivalent, Expanding the Albor Copper-Gold-Silver-Molybdenum Discovery at Filo Sur, Vicuna Dist
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto Group RTNTF | $120.75 | $77.09 | -36% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMBXF | $11.89 | $9.58 | -19% |
| CMOC Group CMCLY | $148.88 | $120.33 | -19% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 260.19 MXN | 124.80 MXN | -52% |
| Anglo American plc AAUKF | $51.51 | $20.30 | -61% |
| Fortescue Ltd FSUMF | $13.50 | $15.72 | +16% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥77.95 | ¥4.90 | -94% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.20 | ₹649.37 | +13% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥47.11 | ¥6.74 | -86% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 545.40 | kr 372.59 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.