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Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Fortescue Ltd $15.47, price $12.09, upside +28.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Fortescue Ltd
FSUMF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $15.47 · Undervalued (+28.0%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 75/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.11 – $16.60 · fair‑value band $11.18 – $22.75 · the $12.09 price screens below the $15.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements.
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Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing. The company was formerly known as Fortescue Metals Group Limited and changed its name to Fortescue Ltd in November 2023. Fortescue Ltd was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) currently trades at $12.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.47, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.62 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.09 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.34, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.18 (bear) to $22.75 (bull), the price of $12.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Fortescue Ltd reported revenue of $15.4B in FY2025 versus $22.2B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $45.6B · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $1.21 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin 21.9% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 28%, FSUMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.18
Fair Value $15.47
Bull $22.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3850 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$10.47
$14.25
$21.76
80
Growth DCF
$10.91
$14.61
$21.34
79
Owner Earnings
$6.07
$8.28
$12.68
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$10.47
$14.25
$21.76
80
Owner Earnings
$6.07
$8.28
$12.68
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$6.89
$9.25
$12.78
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$12.68
$19.10
$27.85
75
5Y P/E Exit
$11.35
$16.84
$23.58
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$8.05
$10.22
$12.56
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$11.73
$16.62
$22.10
69
10Y P/E Exit
$10.92
$15.15
$19.40
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$7.45
$11.50
$13.75
67
EPV
$8.89
$10.40
$11.72
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$8.50
$9.98
$11.68
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$8.50
$11.19
$14.61
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$13.97
$18.62
$23.28
63
P/S Multiple
$5.63
$7.51
$9.39
58
P/B Multiple
$13.97
$18.62
$23.28
55
EV/EBIT
$16.95
$22.64
$28.34
66
EV/EBITDA
$16.31
$21.80
$27.28
67
EV/Revenue
$5.12
$7.37
$9.63
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.24
$4.34
$6.48
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$10.91
$14.61
$21.34
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$6.89
$9.49
$12.86
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.03
$8.46
$11.32
76
ROIC Compounder
$8.98
$10.78
$12.78
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$9.95
$14.22
$18.48
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
8
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 33%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.3% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%
Watch FSUMF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Inside Fortescue’s billion-dollar bet to decarbonize mining—and help rebuild Ukraine
- Australian indigenous group seeks $1.8B in appeal of Fortescue mining compensation ruling
- Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Shares May Be Fairly Valued After Green Metal Progress
- Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Looks Fully Valued After Earnings Dividend And Green Energy Update
Compare Fortescue Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 433 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
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| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.47 versus a price of $12.09, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FSUMF?
Our model-based fair value for Fortescue Ltd is $15.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.09.
What is the quality score of FSUMF?
Fortescue Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.18, optimistic scenario $22.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fortescue Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.47, about +28% upside versus a price of $12.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.18, optimistic scenario $22.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Fortescue Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Fortescue Ltd pay a dividend?
Fortescue Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fortescue Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FSUMF use?
Our models discount Fortescue Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fortescue Ltd that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fortescue Ltd grew -3.7 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fortescue Ltd (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.69 %: that much free cash flow Fortescue Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fortescue Ltd it is $15.47 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $12.09. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fortescue Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, FSUMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.09, fair value $15.47, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSUMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.47). For Fortescue Ltd the two are $3.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fortescue Ltd worth?
The market values Fortescue Ltd at about $45.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $12.09; our models calculate a fair value of $15.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSUMF?
Our models span a range for Fortescue Ltd: cautious scenario $11.18, base $15.47, optimistic $22.75 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $12.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSUMF?
Fortescue Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fortescue Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSUMF from its 52-week high?
Fortescue Ltd trades at $12.09, about 27% below its 52-week high of $16.60 and 5% above the low of $11.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fortescue Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fortescue Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $12.09, calculated fair value $15.47 (+28%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSUMF calculated?
We run Fortescue Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Fortescue Ltd currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.09. Our model-based fair value is $15.47, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fortescue Ltd right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($11.18 to $22.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Fortescue Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The market capitalisation of Fortescue Ltd is $45.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fortescue Ltd is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Earnings per share at Fortescue Ltd are $1.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The dividend yield of Fortescue Ltd is 6.8% (payout 68.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The net margin of Fortescue Ltd is 21.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fortescue Ltd is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fortescue Ltd is 31.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
The operating margin of Fortescue Ltd is 35.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Revenue at Fortescue Ltd is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF)?
Earnings per share at Fortescue Ltd are growing +21.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fortescue Ltd (FSUMF) carry?
The net debt of Fortescue Ltd is $507M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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