ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. ₹59.96, price ₹108, upside -44.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹65.70 – ₹307.95 · fair‑value band ₹39.57 – ₹69.78 · the ₹107.60 price screens above the ₹59.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC) currently trades at ₹107.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹59.96, 44.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹74.78 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹107.60 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ₹16.47, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹39.57 (bear) to ₹69.78 (bull), the price of ₹107.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. reported revenue of ₹277M in FY2023 versus ₹1.7B in FY2019, a compound −36.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹22.5M in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap ₹551M (≈ $5.7M) · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.4% · Free cash flow ₹577K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −44%, ASHOKALC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹39.57Fair Value ₹59.96Bull ₹69.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+61.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2019 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → −5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Commodity Chemicals” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Materials · 3308 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF9.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 35
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹59.96 versus a price of ₹107.60, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASHOKALC?
Our model-based fair value for ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. is ₹59.96 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹107.60.
What is the quality score of ASHOKALC?
ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹59.96 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹39.57, optimistic scenario ₹69.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹59.96, about −44% upside versus a price of ₹107.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹39.57, optimistic scenario ₹69.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. pay a dividend?
ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -36.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASHOKALC use?
Our models discount ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. grew -36.6 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.12 %: that much free cash flow ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. it is ₹59.96 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹107.60. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ASHOKALC trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹107.60, fair value ₹59.96, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASHOKALC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹107.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹59.96). For ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. the two are ₹47.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. worth?
The market values ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. at about ₹551M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹107.60; our models calculate a fair value of ₹59.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASHOKALC?
Our models span a range for ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD.: cautious scenario ₹39.57, base ₹59.96, optimistic ₹69.78 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹107.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ASHOKALC from its 52-week high?
ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. trades at ₹107.60, about 50% below its 52-week high of ₹213.95 and 8% above the low of ₹99.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹59.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD.?
From the same area (Materials) we also value ALUFLUOR, SABOOSOD, 524488, AKTR, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹107.60, calculated fair value ₹59.96 (−44%), Quality Score 66/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASHOKALC calculated?
We run ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹59.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹107.60. Our model-based fair value is ₹59.96, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹69.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
The market capitalisation of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. is ₹551M (≈ $5.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
The dividend yield of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
The net margin of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. is 8.1% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. (ASHOKALC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASHOK ALCO-CHEM LTD. is −5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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