SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. ₹79.97, price ₹129, upside -38.1%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹3.86 – ₹541.70 · fair‑value band ₹58.24 – ₹108.10 · the ₹129.20 price screens above the ₹79.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS) currently trades at ₹129.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹79.97, 38.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹125.96 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the ₹129.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹18.86, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹58.24 (bear) to ₹108.10 (bull), the price of ₹129.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. reported revenue of ₹2.0B in FY2026 versus ₹918M in FY2022, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was ₹213M in FY2026, compounding +93.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹4.4B (≈ $45.6M) · P/E ratio 19.0 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) ₹28.20 · Net margin 10.5% · Return on equity 25.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 548% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −38%, SIMPLEXCAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹58.24Fair Value ₹79.97Bull ₹108.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹14.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+76.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+76.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 17%
2026 sits 108% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−38.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−18.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹79.97 versus a price of ₹129.20, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIMPLEXCAS?
Our model-based fair value for SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is ₹79.97 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹129.20.
What is the quality score of SIMPLEXCAS?
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹79.97 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹58.24, optimistic scenario ₹108.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹79.97, about −38% upside versus a price of ₹129.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹58.24, optimistic scenario ₹108.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. it is ₹79.97 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹129.20. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SIMPLEXCAS trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹129.20, fair value ₹79.97, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIMPLEXCAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹129.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹79.97). For SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. the two are ₹49.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. worth?
The market values SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. at about ₹4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹129.20; our models calculate a fair value of ₹79.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIMPLEXCAS?
Our models span a range for SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD.: cautious scenario ₹58.24, base ₹79.97, optimistic ₹108.10 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹129.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIMPLEXCAS?
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹79.97 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 25.0%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIMPLEXCAS from its 52-week high?
SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. trades at ₹129.20, about 76% below its 52-week high of ₹541.70 and 548% above the low of ₹19.94 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹79.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD.?
From the same area (Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹129.20, calculated fair value ₹79.97 (−38%), Quality Score 40/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIMPLEXCAS calculated?
We run SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹79.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹129.20. Our model-based fair value is ₹79.97, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹108.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (₹58.24 to ₹108.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The market capitalisation of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is ₹4.4B (≈ $45.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Earnings per share at SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. are ₹28.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The net margin of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is 10.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
The operating margin of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Revenue at SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is growing −18.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS)?
Earnings per share at SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. are growing +61.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS) generate?
The free cash flow of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is −₹58.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. (SIMPLEXCAS) carry?
The net debt of SIMPLEX CASTINGS LTD. is ₹494M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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