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Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 28, 2026: fair value of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd $0.32, price $0.80, upside -60.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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AS
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd
ASMMF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.3200 · Strongly overvalued (−60.0%)
!Quality 33/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +32.7 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2300 – $10.00 · fair‑value band $0.2400 – $0.4700 · the $0.8000 price screens above the $0.3200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd operates as an integrated producer of critical metals for technologies in Australia. It holds interest in the Dubbo project, which contains rare earths, zirconium, niobium, and hafnium located in central-western New South Wales. The company also constructs and operates Korean metals plant located in Ochang, South Korea.
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Australian Strategic Materials Ltd operates as an integrated producer of critical metals for technologies in Australia. It holds interest in the Dubbo project, which contains rare earths, zirconium, niobium, and hafnium located in central-western New South Wales. The company also constructs and operates Korean metals plant located in Ochang, South Korea. It serves advanced manufacturing, defense, electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, medical devices, robotics, and sustainable energy industries. The company was formerly known as Australian Zirconia Holdings Pty Ltd and changed its name to Australian Strategic Materials Ltd in March 2020. Australian Strategic Materials Ltd was founded in 2000 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF) currently trades at $0.8000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3200, 60.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.2400 (bear) to $0.4700 (bull), the price of $0.8000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd reported revenue of A$5.1M in FY2025 versus A$1.4M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$24.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $249M · P/S ratio 24.7 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin −214% · Return on equity −10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.4% · Operating margin −115%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −60%, ASMMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2400
Fair Value $0.3200
Bull $0.4700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2300
$0.3100
$0.4600
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2300
$0.3100
$0.4600
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
33/100
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability
1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
79
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
5
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
5
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.6%
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−437.9% (2020) → −392.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.08 | ¥19.15 | +12% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3200 versus the last price from Aug 28, 2026 of $0.8000, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASMMF?
Our model-based fair value for Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is $0.3200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 28, 2026): $0.8000.
What is the quality score of ASMMF?
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.4700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Australian Strategic Materials Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3200, about −60% upside versus the last price from Aug 28, 2026 of $0.8000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.4700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$10.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Australian Strategic Materials Ltd pay a dividend?
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Australian Strategic Materials Ltd it is $0.3200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Australian Strategic Materials Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ASMMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8000, fair value $0.3200, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASMMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3200). For Australian Strategic Materials Ltd the two are $0.4800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Australian Strategic Materials Ltd worth?
The market values Australian Strategic Materials Ltd at about $249M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASMMF?
Our models span a range for Australian Strategic Materials Ltd: cautious scenario $0.2400, base $0.3200, optimistic $0.4700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASMMF from its 52-week high?
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd trades at $0.8000, about 47% below its 52-week high of $1.52 and 142% above the low of $0.3300 (as of Aug 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Australian Strategic Materials Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Australian Strategic Materials Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8000, calculated fair value $0.3200 (−60%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASMMF calculated?
We run Australian Strategic Materials Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Australian Strategic Materials Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 28, 2026 and stands at $0.8000. Our model-based fair value is $0.3200, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Australian Strategic Materials Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2400 to $0.4700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The market capitalisation of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is $249M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is 24.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Earnings per share at Australian Strategic Materials Ltd are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The dividend yield of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is 6.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The net margin of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is −214% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is −8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
The operating margin of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is −115% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF)?
Revenue at Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is growing +227% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF) generate?
The free cash flow of Australian Strategic Materials Ltd is −A$28.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASMMF) hold?
Australian Strategic Materials Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$5.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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