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ASM International NV (ASMXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ASM International NV $715, price $1,108, upside -35.5%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AI
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
ASM International NV
ASMXF · USQuality Too ExpensiveQuality growthExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value $715.02 · Strongly overvalued (−35.5%)
✓Quality 77/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +19.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 31.0% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 92/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $216.83 – $1,250 · fair‑value band $499.04 – $1,070 · the $1,108 price screens above the $715.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
ASM International NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacturing, marketing, and servicing of equipment and materials used to produce semiconductor devices in the United States, Europe, and Asia.
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ASM International NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacturing, marketing, and servicing of equipment and materials used to produce semiconductor devices in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company offers equipment used in wafer processing, which encompasses the fabrication steps in which silicon wafers are layered with semiconductor devices. It also provides wafer-processing deposition systems for surface modification, atomic layer deposition (ALD), such as plasma enhanced ALD (PEALD); epitaxy (Epi); plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD); and vertical furnace systems, including low pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD), diffusion, oxidation, and cure. In addition, the company provides silicon carbide epitaxy (SiC Epi) tools for power and wafer applications; chemical mechanical polishing equipment for compound semiconductors and More-than-Moore manufacturing; and spare parts and support services. It sells its products to semiconductor manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Advanced Semiconductor Materials International NV. ASM International NV was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
ASM International NV (ASMXF) currently trades at $1,108, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $715.02, 35.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $450.20 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,108 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $144.25, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $499.04 (bear) to $1,070 (bull), the price of $1,108 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ASM International NV reported revenue of €3.2B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was €723M in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $54.5B · P/E ratio 47.4 · P/S ratio 10.8 · EPS (TTM) $23.39 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 22.8% · Return on equity 24.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −35%, ASMXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $499.04
Fair Value $715.02
Bull $1,070
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($15.23 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$268.11
$450.20
$757.18
76
Growth DCF
$267.81
$438.87
$722.01
74
Residual Income
$107.18
$144.25
$251.44
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$268.11
$450.20
$757.18
76
Owner Earnings
$238.11
$397.84
$667.15
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$234.46
$380.73
$575.52
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$330.57
$574.30
$876.10
71
5Y P/E Exit
$318.79
$550.57
$811.05
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$237.26
$378.64
$587.21
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
$306.98
$518.61
$833.23
64
10Y P/E Exit
$299.25
$501.46
$779.99
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$113.28
$483.13
$659.85
64
Lynch FV
$123.38
$176.25
$229.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$123.38
$176.25
$229.13
57
EPV
$187.32
$214.60
$238.47
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$31.13
$64.73
$102.69
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$31.13
$54.58
$67.94
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$349.84
$466.45
$583.07
63
P/S Multiple
$212.40
$283.20
$354.01
58
P/B Multiple
$212.40
$283.20
$354.01
55
EV/EBIT
$416.36
$547.26
$678.17
63
EV/EBITDA
$392.64
$515.64
$638.63
64
EV/Revenue
$222.18
$307.27
$392.36
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$46.11
$61.78
$92.21
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$267.81
$438.87
$722.01
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$234.46
$378.41
$559.61
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$107.18
$144.25
$251.44
73
ROIC Compounder
$206.99
$264.97
$337.25
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$247.08
$352.96
$458.85
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
77/100
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.4% vs 20.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.7% a year for the price and +16.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+25.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+20.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+18.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+15.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+13.6%
ASMXF screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with ASML Holding →
Compare ASM International NV with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | €1,597 | €1,350 | −15% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $314.47 | $250.94 | −20% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $511.38 | $368.52 | −28% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $187.92 | $160.12 | −15% |
| Teradyne, Inc TER | $415.79 | $65.79 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥339.30 | ¥110.10 | −68% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 5,670 TWD | 4,864 TWD | −14% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥700.90 | ¥320.60 | −54% |
| Qnity Electronics, Inc Q | $124.69 | $70.44 | −44% |
| Entegris, Inc ENTG | $151.89 | $92.64 | −39% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ASM International NV (ASMXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $715.02 versus a price of $1,108, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASMXF?
Our model-based fair value for ASM International NV is $715.02 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,108.
What is the quality score of ASMXF?
ASM International NV has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $715.02 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $499.04, optimistic scenario $1,070. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASM International NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $715.02, about −35% upside versus a price of $1,108 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $499.04, optimistic scenario $1,070. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
ASM International NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does ASM International NV pay a dividend?
ASM International NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASM International NV would have to grow free cash flow by +31.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASMXF use?
Our models discount ASM International NV at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASM International NV that is +31.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASM International NV (ASMXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ASM International NV grew +19.0 % a year. The price currently implies +31.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ASM International NV (ASMXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ASM International NV (+31.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.75 %: that much free cash flow ASM International NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASM International NV it is $715.02 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $1,108. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASM International NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ASMXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,108, fair value $715.02, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASMXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,108); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($715.02). For ASM International NV the two are $392.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASM International NV worth?
The market values ASM International NV at about $54.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $1,108; our models calculate a fair value of $715.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASMXF?
Our models span a range for ASM International NV: cautious scenario $499.04, base $715.02, optimistic $1,070 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $1,108). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASMXF?
ASM International NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.4 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $715.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 14.7, P/S 18.4, EV/EBITDA 52.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ASMXF?
The PEG ratio of ASM International NV is 2.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASM International NV (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 24.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASMXF from its 52-week high?
ASM International NV trades at $1,108, about 11% below its 52-week high of $1,250 and 103% above the low of $546.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $715.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASM International NV?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASM International NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $1,108, calculated fair value $715.02 (−35%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASMXF calculated?
We run ASM International NV through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $715.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASM International NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1,108. Our model-based fair value is $715.02, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASM International NV right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1,070). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($499.04 to $1,070) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ASM International NV (ASMXF) come from?
Earnings per share at ASM International NV grew +22.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.3 %, EBIT margin +6.5 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ASM International NV
How large is the market capitalisation of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The market capitalisation of ASM International NV is $54.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASM International NV is 10.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Earnings per share at ASM International NV are $23.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The dividend yield of ASM International NV is 0.3% (payout 13.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The net margin of ASM International NV is 22.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASM International NV is 24.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASM International NV is 16.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
The operating margin of ASM International NV is 32.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Revenue at ASM International NV is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASM International NV (ASMXF)?
Earnings per share at ASM International NV are growing −26.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does ASM International NV (ASMXF) hold?
ASM International NV holds more cash than debt, €963M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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