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Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Altius Minerals Corporation $29.92, price $45.99, upside -34.9%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Altius Minerals Corporation
ATUSF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $29.92 · Overvalued (−34.9%)
✓Quality 73/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −7.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 62.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 76/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $18.14 to $54.66
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.17 – $48.99 · fair‑value band $18.14 – $54.66 · the $45.99 price screens above the $29.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation.
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Altius Minerals Corporation engages in the mineral and renewable royalties and project generation businesses in Canada, Brazil, and the United States. The company operates in three segments: Mineral Royalties, Renewable Royalties and Project Generation. It owns royalty and streaming interests in 11 operating mines covering copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, potash, and iron ore. The company is also involved in the acquisition and management of renewable energy investments and royalties, as well as early-stage royalties and minority equity or project interests. Altius Minerals Corporation was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in St. John's, Canada.
Stock analysis
Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) currently trades at $45.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.92, 34.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $121.83 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $45.99 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.07, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.14 (bear) to $54.66 (bull), the price of $45.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Altius Minerals Corporation reported revenue of C$53.7M in FY2025 versus C$63.2M in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$299M in FY2025, compounding +65.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 57.0 · EPS (TTM) $4.48 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 62.8% · Return on equity 40.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −35%, ATUSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.14
Fair Value $29.92
Bull $54.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.39 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$8.64
$11.85
$21.85
78
Growth DCF
$8.28
$12.73
$21.45
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.95
$5.83
$7.60
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$8.64
$11.85
$21.85
78
Owner Earnings
$63.76
$138.03
$288.23
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.95
$5.83
$7.60
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$7.77
$11.52
$18.87
74
5Y P/E Exit
$39.80
$95.97
$174.29
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$6.07
$8.31
$9.17
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.11
$14.23
$24.74
66
10Y P/E Exit
$30.96
$81.62
$168.90
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$25.57
$178.35
$250.29
63
Lynch FV
$73.56
$105.08
$136.60
61
PEG = 1.0
$73.56
$105.08
$136.60
57
EPV
$4.07
$4.29
$4.47
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.78
$3.55
$5.38
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.78
$3.07
$3.75
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$47.95
$63.93
$79.92
63
P/S Multiple
$0.7600
$1.02
$1.27
58
P/B Multiple
$25.39
$33.85
$42.31
55
EV/EBIT
$5.87
$6.93
$7.99
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.27
$8.79
$10.32
67
EV/Revenue
$3.40
$3.71
$4.01
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.64
$7.56
$11.28
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$8.28
$12.73
$21.45
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.02
$6.28
$8.45
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$23.40
$40.02
$109.16
66
ROIC Compounder
$4.07
$4.29
$4.47
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$85.28
$121.83
$158.37
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Profitability
62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 45%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 720% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+31.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.4% a year for the price and +28.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+87.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+24.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+21.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+18.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.0%
Compare Altius Minerals Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 441 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.08 | ¥19.15 | +12% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.92 versus a price of $45.99, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATUSF?
Our model-based fair value for Altius Minerals Corporation is $29.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $45.99.
What is the quality score of ATUSF?
Altius Minerals Corporation has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $54.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Altius Minerals Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.92, about −35% upside versus a price of $45.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $54.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Altius Minerals Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Altius Minerals Corporation pay a dividend?
Altius Minerals Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Altius Minerals Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +33.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATUSF use?
Our models discount Altius Minerals Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Altius Minerals Corporation that is +33.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Altius Minerals Corporation grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Altius Minerals Corporation (+33.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow Altius Minerals Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Altius Minerals Corporation it is $29.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $45.99. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Altius Minerals Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ATUSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $45.99, fair value $29.92, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATUSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($45.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.92). For Altius Minerals Corporation the two are $16.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Altius Minerals Corporation worth?
The market values Altius Minerals Corporation at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $45.99; our models calculate a fair value of $29.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATUSF?
Our models span a range for Altius Minerals Corporation: cautious scenario $18.14, base $29.92, optimistic $54.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $45.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATUSF?
Altius Minerals Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.92 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Altius Minerals Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 40.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATUSF from its 52-week high?
Altius Minerals Corporation trades at $45.99, about 6% below its 52-week high of $48.99 and 100% above the low of $22.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Altius Minerals Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Altius Minerals Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $45.99, calculated fair value $29.92 (−35%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATUSF calculated?
We run Altius Minerals Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Altius Minerals Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $45.99. Our model-based fair value is $29.92, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Altius Minerals Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide ($18.14 to $54.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Altius Minerals Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The market capitalisation of Altius Minerals Corporation is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Altius Minerals Corporation is 57.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Earnings per share at Altius Minerals Corporation are $4.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The dividend yield of Altius Minerals Corporation is 0.7% (payout 7.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The net margin of Altius Minerals Corporation is 62.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Altius Minerals Corporation is 40.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Altius Minerals Corporation is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
The operating margin of Altius Minerals Corporation is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Revenue at Altius Minerals Corporation is growing +75.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF)?
Earnings per share at Altius Minerals Corporation are growing −61.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Altius Minerals Corporation (ATUSF) carry?
The net debt of Altius Minerals Corporation is $83.5M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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