Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp stock $23.30, price $39.34, that is 40.8% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.55 – $43.01 · fair‑value band $17.48 – $29.12 · the $39.34 price screens above the $23.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial products and services to consumers and businesses in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale Banking and Consumer Banking.
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It accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, time deposit, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; and other depository services.
The company provides loans for commercial real estate, commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes, as well as debit and credit cards.
In addition, it provides treasury management and capital market, wealth management, private banking, trust, financial and retirement planning, brokerage, investment management, equipment finance, mortgage banking, and insurance products and services.
The company offers products and services through full-service branches and ATMs, as well as through its mobile and internet banking. The company was formerly known as Union Bankshares Corporation and changed its name to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation in May 2019.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) currently trades at $39.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.30, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $28.53 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $39.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.11, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.48 (bear) to $29.12 (bull), the price of $39.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $711M in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was $274M in FY2025, compounding +0.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.6B Mid · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 3.65 · EPS (TTM) $3.37 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 34.8% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −41%, AUB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.48Fair Value $23.30Bull$29.12
Price $39.34 · Downside -40.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.62 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$27.75$28.53$30.4076
DDM Multi-Stage$12.32$21.42$26.4467
Gordon GGM$12.32$25.13$39.0266
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$12.32$25.13$39.0266
DDM Multi-Stage$12.32$21.42$26.4467
Multiples
P/E Multiple$19.00$25.34$31.6763
P/B Multiple$22.11$29.48$36.8555
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$10.53$14.11$21.0654
Economic Profit
Residual Income$27.75$28.53$30.4076
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $489,905 and none bought.
SaleRonald L TillettDirector4,500 shares at $40.01$180,065Nov 2, 2026
SaleMatthew L. LindermanEVP7,746 shares at $40.00$309,840Oct 22, 2026
BuyNancy H AgeeDirector650 shares at $39.05$25,383Apr 20, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.5% vs 3.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 20%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The regional bank's main strength lies in its Virginia-centered deposit gathering for commercial and consumer lending, while its main weak point remains the thin evidence of durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: The CFPB recently ordered Atlantic Union Bank to refund overdraft fees and pay a penalty for improper enrollment practices, which could restrict future fee income from such services.
Bull case: The bank could leverage its local relationships and ongoing technology investments including AI tools to retain customers and improve efficiency despite regulatory and competitive pressures.
Bear case: Regulatory restrictions on fees combined with fintech competition could erode margins on core deposit and lending activities in its regional franchise.
Directors at Atlantic Union recently added shares and phantom units to their holdings. The bank operates as a regional player centered on Virginia markets, where it gathers deposits to fund lending across commercial and consumer segments. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will this insider activity reflect durable advantages in its local franchise that overcome broader rate and competition risks, or will those risks dominate the outlook?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)34.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)51.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUB
Frequently asked questions
Is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.30 versus a price of $39.34, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AUB?
Our model-based fair value for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is $23.30 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.34.
What is the quality score of AUB?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.30 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.48, optimistic scenario $29.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.30, about 41% lower versus a price of $39.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.48, optimistic scenario $29.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp pay a dividend?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp pays a dividend of $1.48 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1994. The payout ratio is 30.5% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 43.9%). Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp it is $23.30 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $39.34. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AUB trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.34, fair value $23.30, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.30). For Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp the two are $16.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp worth?
The market values Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $39.34; our models calculate a fair value of $23.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUB?
Our models span a range for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp: cautious scenario $17.48, base $23.30, optimistic $29.12 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $39.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AUB?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.30 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.9 (reported for FY2025: 18.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 13.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 17.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AUB?
The PEG ratio of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 1.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUB from its 52-week high?
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp trades at $39.34, about 9% below its 52-week high of $43.01 and 29% above the low of $30.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $39.34, calculated fair value $23.30 (−41%), Quality Score 27/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUB calculated?
We run Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $23.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $39.34. Our model-based fair value is $23.30, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) come from?
Earnings per share at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp grew +5.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The market capitalisation of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 3.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Earnings per share at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp are $3.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The dividend yield of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 3.8% (payout 30.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 43.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The net margin of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 34.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
The operating margin of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is 51.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Revenue at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB)?
Earnings per share at Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp are growing +49.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is $85.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) carry?
The net debt of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026