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Aura Biosciences Inc (AURA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $797M · ISIN US05153U1079

What is Aura Biosciences Inc really worth?

AB Aura Biosciences Inc logo Aura Biosciences Inc AURA · US
Price$7.56
Fair Value$1.13
Upside−85.1%
Quality36/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 569% above our fair value of $1.13.

As of Aug 16, 2026, the fair value of Aura Biosciences Inc is $1.13 per share against a price of $7.56, so the fair value sits 85% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/8)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range $0.7500 – $1.41

Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +5.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range ($0.7500 to $1.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$24.89 $4.90 Fair Value $1.13 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

58‑month range $4.90 – $24.89 · fair‑value band $0.7500 – $1.41 · the $7.56 price screens above the $1.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Aura Biosciences Inc (AURA) currently trades at $7.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 568.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

It earns a return on equity of −95.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $42.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.7500 (bear case) to $1.41 (bull case); at $7.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −85%, AURA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) best evidence $0.6600 $0.8800 $1.32 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) best evidence $0.6600 $0.8800 $1.32 51

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Key figures & financial health

EPS (TTM) $−1.73
Return on equity −53.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −40.3% avg 5y
Free cash flow −$85.2M FY2025
Net cash $42.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Aura Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops precision therapies to treat solid tumors. The company's proprietary platform enables the targeting of a range of solid tumors using virus-like particles conjugated with drugs or loaded with nucleic acids to create virus-like drug conjugates.

Full company description

Aura Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops precision therapies to treat solid tumors. The company's proprietary platform enables the targeting of a range of solid tumors using virus-like particles conjugated with drugs or loaded with nucleic acids to create virus-like drug conjugates. Its lead candidate is bel-sar, which is in late-stage clinical development for the treatment of patients with primary choroidal melanoma and other ocular oncology indications, as well as in early-stage clinical development in bladder cancer. It focuses on assessing the safety and efficacy of bel-sar in treating a range of other solid tumors, including bladder cancer. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aura Biosciences Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$106M in FY2025.

Revenue
FY21 $0
FY22 $0
FY23 $0
FY24 $0
FY25 $0
Net income
FY21 −$35.3M
FY22 −$58.8M
FY23 −$76.4M
FY24 −$86.9M
FY25 −$106M

AURA screens 569% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aura Biosciences Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AURA.US

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 627 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Below median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −31% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.55 $278.78 −49%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $807.71 $594.40 −26%
argenx SE ARGX €877.60 €292.84 −67%
BeOne Medicines AG 688235 ¥271.00 ¥47.36 −83%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,518,000 KRW 1,055,793 KRW −30%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $228.61 $51.70 −77%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $60.58 $24.22 −60%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 190,700 KRW 74,519 KRW −61%
BioNTech SE BNTX $103.76 $45.70 −56%
Incyte Corporation INCY $123.22 $115.79 −6%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aura Biosciences Inc (AURA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.13 versus a price of $7.56, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AURA?
Our model-based fair value for Aura Biosciences Inc is $1.13 (as of Aug 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.56.
What is the quality score of AURA?
Aura Biosciences Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aura Biosciences Inc (AURA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.13 (as of Aug 16, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $1.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aura Biosciences Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.13, about −85% upside versus a price of $7.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $1.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of AURA?
The net profit margin of Aura Biosciences Inc is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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