Aviva plc (AV) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · GB · Market cap 20.0B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from £4.48 to £4.49 (+0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£5.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.48 – £6.73 · fair‑value band £3.37 – £5.61 · the £6.73 price screens above the £4.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Aviva plc (AV) currently trades at £6.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £4.49, implying the stock looks roughly 33.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aviva plc generated revenue of £28.7B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 37.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £10.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £3.37 (bear case) to £5.61 (bull case); at £6.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -33%, AV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£18.33) versus Asset-Based (£2.17). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, and wealth products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, India, and China. It operates through General Insurance; Insurance, Wealth & Retirement; Aviva Investors; and International Investments segments.
Full company description
Aviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, and wealth products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, India, and China. It operates through General Insurance; Insurance, Wealth & Retirement; Aviva Investors; and International Investments segments. The company offers gadget, home, motor, pet, and health insurance, as well as commercial, specialty insurance and protection. It also provides life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pension, and annuity products, as well as pension fund and lifetime mortgage products; insurance cover to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses for risks associated with motor vehicles and medical expenses, as well as property and liability, such as employers' and professional indemnity liabilities; and personal and commercial lines insurance products for risks associated motor, property, and liability. In addition, the company offers investment management services for institutional pension fund mandates; and manages various retail investment products, including fixed income, equities, multi-asset, real estate and infrastructure for third-party financial institutions, pension funds, public sector organizations, investment professionals, and private investors. It markets its products through a network of insurance brokers, affinity partners, and banks, as well as MyAviva platform price comparison websites. The company was formerly known as CGNU plc and changed its name to Aviva plc in July 2002. Aviva plc was founded in 1696 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aviva plc reported revenue of £58.5B in FY2025 versus £32.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was £1.0B in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.
AV screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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