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Data-driven stock valuation

Aviva PLC (AV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aviva PLC stock £3.28, price £7.53, that is 56.4% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services GB · ISIN GB00BPQY8M80

AP Aviva PLC logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

Aviva PLC

AV · LSE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 56% below what the stock costs today.

Broad data
Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.9 %/yr in GBP)
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Neutral coverage
Fair value £3.28 · Strongly overvalued (−56.4%)
Quality 37/100
Negative free cash flow
5.3% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 36/100 · thin data

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Rising ghost broker fraud in home market🚩Price comparison sites commoditise UK personal lines
Watch Aviva PLC for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£7.53 £2.82 Fair Value £3.28 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £2.82 – £7.53 · fair‑value band £2.93 – £4.13 · the £7.53 price screens above the £3.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Aviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, and wealth products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, India, and China. It operates through General Insurance; Insurance, Wealth & Retirement; Aviva Investors; and International Investments segments.

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The company offers gadget, home, motor, pet, and health insurance, as well as commercial, specialty insurance and protection.

It also provides life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pension, and annuity products, as well as pension fund and lifetime mortgage products; insurance cover to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses for risks associated with motor vehicles and medical expenses, as well as property and liability, such as employers' and professional indemnity liabilities; and personal and commercial lines insurance products for risks associated motor, property, and liability.

In addition, the company offers investment management services for institutional pension fund mandates; and manages various retail investment products, including fixed income, equities, multi-asset, real estate and infrastructure for third-party financial institutions, pension funds, public sector organizations, investment professionals, and private investors.

It markets its products through a network of insurance brokers, affinity partners, and banks, as well as MyAviva platform price comparison websites. The company was formerly known as CGNU plc and changed its name to Aviva plc in July 2002.

Aviva plc was founded in 1696 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Aviva PLC (AV) currently trades at £7.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.28, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £6.79 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £7.53 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.7900, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: £2.93 (bear) to £4.13 (bull), the price of £7.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Aviva PLC reported revenue of £58.5B in FY2025 versus £32.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was £1.0B in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap £23.0B Large · P/E ratio 44.3 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) £0.1700 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −56%, AV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £2.93 Fair Value £3.28 Bull £4.13
Price £7.53 · Downside -56.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income £2.93 £3.28 £4.13 74
Gordon GGM £3.86 £8.10 £12.98 64
DDM Multi-Stage £3.86 £6.79 £8.49 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £3.86 £8.10 £12.98 64
DDM Multi-Stage £3.86 £6.79 £8.49 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple £3.37 £4.49 £5.61 63
P/B Multiple £1.24 £1.66 £2.07 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.5900 £0.7900 £1.18 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income £2.93 £3.28 £4.13 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 74
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 15
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 84
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 88
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 55
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 77
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 36
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Per share before 1994divided by the spin-off factor 1.0136
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.6% vs 2.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AV screens overvalued: fair value 56% below the price. Compare with Allianz SE →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Aviva pairs balance sheet strength with a technology-focused U.S. specialty insurance launch, yet weak cash conversion and rising fraud threats in its core market constrain overall durability.
Main risk: Price comparison websites and rivals such as Admiral could intensify price competition in motor and home insurance, squeezing underwriting margins in Aviva's core UK market.
Bull case: Aviva could leverage its scale, data platforms and partnerships in embedded insurance to retain customers and defend margins despite comparison-site pressure.
Bear case: Intense commoditisation in personal lines could erode Aviva's underwriting margins and market share in its home market over the coming years.
Aviva has launched a U.S. specialty insurance business that pairs its balance sheet strength with a technology-focused underwriting approach. At the same time ghost broker activity and related fraud threats in its home market have risen sharply according to its own data. Will the new international platform deliver enough incremental growth to offset pressures in established lines?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 73 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −56.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 2.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 7.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 16.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.57× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 44.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.75× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.65× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)85 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)71 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Arch Capital Group ACGL $110.68 $133.22 +20% vs AV
American International Group AIG $81.71 $72.63 −11% vs AV
The Hartford Insurance Group HIG $138.11 $115.03 −17% vs AV
AXA SA CS €45.71 €35.31 −23% vs AV
Talanx AG TLX €134.70 €89.76 −33% vs AV
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 643.80 CHF 320.92 −50% vs AV
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $81.98 $40.74 −50% vs AV
Allianz SE ALV €465.10 €229.28 −51% vs AV
Swiss Life Holding SLHN CHF 988.20 CHF 413.28 −58% vs AV
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €44.56 €15.32 −66% vs AV

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Aviva PLC: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aviva PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AV

Frequently asked questions

Is Aviva PLC (AV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.28 versus a price of £7.53, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AV?
Our model-based fair value for Aviva PLC is £3.28 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £7.53.
What is the quality score of AV?
Aviva PLC has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aviva PLC (AV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.28 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.93, optimistic scenario £4.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aviva PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.28, about 56% lower versus a price of £7.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £2.93, optimistic scenario £4.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aviva PLC (AV)?
Aviva PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £30.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Aviva PLC pay a dividend?
Aviva PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aviva PLC (AV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aviva PLC it is £3.28 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of £7.53. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aviva PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, AV trades above its calculated fair value: price £7.53, fair value £3.28, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£7.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.28). For Aviva PLC the two are £4.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aviva PLC worth?
The market values Aviva PLC at about £23.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is £7.53; our models calculate a fair value of £3.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AV?
Our models span a range for Aviva PLC: cautious scenario £2.93, base £3.28, optimistic £4.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price £7.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AV?
Aviva PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AV?
The PEG ratio of Aviva PLC is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aviva PLC (AV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aviva PLC (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AV from its 52-week high?
Aviva PLC trades at £7.53, at its 52-week high of £7.53 and 31% above the low of £5.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aviva PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aviva PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price £7.53, calculated fair value £3.28 (−56%), Quality Score 37/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AV calculated?
We run Aviva PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aviva PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £7.53. Our model-based fair value is £3.28, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aviva PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£4.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aviva PLC (AV) come from?
Earnings per share at Aviva PLC grew −0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Aviva PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The market capitalisation of Aviva PLC is £23.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aviva PLC is 0.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aviva PLC (AV)?
Earnings per share at Aviva PLC are £0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The dividend yield of Aviva PLC is 5.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The net margin of Aviva PLC is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aviva PLC is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aviva PLC (AV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aviva PLC is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aviva PLC (AV)?
The operating margin of Aviva PLC is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aviva PLC (AV)?
Revenue at Aviva PLC is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aviva PLC (AV)?
Earnings per share at Aviva PLC are growing −43.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aviva PLC (AV) generate?
The free cash flow of Aviva PLC is −£3.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aviva PLC (AV) hold?
Aviva PLC holds more cash than debt, £10.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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