Grupo Aval (AVAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Aval $4.39, price $5.03, upside -12.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.66 – $5.75 · fair‑value band $3.95 – $6.10 · the $5.03 price screens above the $4.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America. The company offers traditional deposit services and products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and other deposits.
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. provides a range of financial services and products in Colombia and Central America. The company offers traditional deposit services and products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and other deposits. It also provides commercial loans comprising general purpose loans, working capital loans, leases, loans funded by development banks, corporate credit cards, and overdraft loans; consumer loans, such as payroll loans, personal loans, automobile and other vehicle loans, credit cards, overdrafts, leases, and general-purpose loans; and microcredit and mortgage loans. In addition, the company offers pension and severance fund management services; investment banking services, including services relating to capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and delivering financial consulting services; mobile and online banking services; and bancassurance, insurance, trust, bonded warehousing, real estate escrow, merchandise and document storage and deposit, customs agency, cargo management, surety bond and merchandise distribution, and payment and collection services, as well as provides deposit and lending operations in foreign currencies. Further, it is involved in equity investments in various sectors, including infrastructure, energy and gas, agribusiness, and hotels; and providing treasury operations. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia.
Stock analysis
Grupo Aval (AVAL) currently trades at $5.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.39, implying the stock looks roughly 14.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $3.95 (bear) to $6.10 (bull), the price of $5.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Aval reported revenue of 42.3T COP in FY2025 versus 20.7T COP in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T COP in FY2025, compounding −16.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −13%, AVAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.95Fair Value $4.39Bull $6.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2926 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in COP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in COP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 9%
2025 sits 58% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−24.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in COP, Colombia: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 5.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and −27.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (71 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−13% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Aval Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVAL
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Aval (AVAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.39 versus a price of $5.03, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVAL?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Aval is $4.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.03.
What is the quality score of AVAL?
Grupo Aval has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.95, optimistic scenario $6.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Aval stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.39, about −13% upside versus a price of $5.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.95, optimistic scenario $6.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Grupo Aval pay a dividend?
Grupo Aval currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Aval would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVAL use?
Our models discount Grupo Aval at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Aval that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Aval (AVAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Aval grew +30.5 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Aval (AVAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Aval (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.43 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Aval produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Aval it is $4.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.03. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Aval stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.03, fair value $4.39, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.39). For Grupo Aval the two are $0.6400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Aval worth?
The market values Grupo Aval at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.03; our models calculate a fair value of $4.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVAL?
Our models span a range for Grupo Aval: cautious scenario $3.95, base $4.39, optimistic $6.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVAL?
Grupo Aval trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 16.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Aval (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 3.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVAL from its 52-week high?
Grupo Aval trades at $5.03, about 13% below its 52-week high of $5.75 and 57% above the low of $3.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Aval?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Aval stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.03, calculated fair value $4.39 (−13%), Quality Score 47/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVAL calculated?
We run Grupo Aval through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Aval itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.03. Our model-based fair value is $4.39, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Aval right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Grupo Aval (AVAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval grew −7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −11.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grupo Aval
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Aval is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Aval is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Aval is 3.2% (payout 39.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The net margin of Grupo Aval is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Aval is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Aval is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Revenue at Grupo Aval is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Aval (AVAL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aval are growing −6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Aval (AVAL) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Aval is 49.3T COP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 33.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026