AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AVARDA BANK SEK 101, price SEK 207, upside -51.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch AVARDA BANK for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 40.29 – kr 216.00 · fair‑value band kr 75.74 – kr 126.94 · the kr 206.50 price screens above the kr 100.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow AVARDA BANK in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether AVARDA BANK is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Avarda Bank AB (publ), a digital credit and payment platform, provides consumer banking services and e-commerce solutions in Sweden. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Lending, Ecommerce Solutions, and Credit Cards. It offers deposit products; unsecured consumer loans; and digital payment solutions, as well as credit cards.
Show more
Avarda Bank AB (publ), a digital credit and payment platform, provides consumer banking services and e-commerce solutions in Sweden. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Lending, Ecommerce Solutions, and Credit Cards. It offers deposit products; unsecured consumer loans; and digital payment solutions, as well as credit cards. The company serves private individuals in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Austria, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain. Avarda Bank AB (publ) was formerly known as TF Bank AB (publ) and changed its name to Avarda Bank AB (publ) in April 2026. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Borås, Sweden.
Stock analysis
AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) currently trades at kr 206.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 100.84, implying the stock looks roughly 104.8% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 90.97 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 206.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 34.08, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 75.74 (bear) to kr 126.94 (bull), the price of kr 206.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
AVARDA BANK reported revenue of 2.9B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2022, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was 667M SEK in FY2025, compounding +24.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 13.4B SEK (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 18.9 · P/S ratio 4.38 · EPS (TTM) kr 10.95 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −51%, AVARDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 75.74Fair Value kr 100.84Bull kr 126.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
2025 sits 68% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.32× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)99· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AVARDA BANK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVARDA
Frequently asked questions
Is AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 100.84 versus a price of kr 206.50, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVARDA?
Our model-based fair value for AVARDA BANK is kr 100.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 206.50.
What is the quality score of AVARDA?
AVARDA BANK has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 100.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 75.74, optimistic scenario kr 126.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AVARDA BANK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 100.84, about −51% upside versus a price of kr 206.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 75.74, optimistic scenario kr 126.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
AVARDA BANK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does AVARDA BANK pay a dividend?
AVARDA BANK currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AVARDA BANK would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +27.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVARDA use?
Our models discount AVARDA BANK at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AVARDA BANK that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at AVARDA BANK grew +27.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AVARDA BANK (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.71 %: that much free cash flow AVARDA BANK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AVARDA BANK it is kr 100.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of kr 206.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AVARDA BANK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AVARDA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 206.50, fair value kr 100.84, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVARDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 206.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 100.84). For AVARDA BANK the two are kr 105.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AVARDA BANK worth?
The market values AVARDA BANK at about 13.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is kr 206.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 100.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVARDA?
Our models span a range for AVARDA BANK: cautious scenario kr 75.74, base kr 100.84, optimistic kr 126.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price kr 206.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVARDA?
AVARDA BANK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 100.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for AVARDA BANK (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 24.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVARDA from its 52-week high?
AVARDA BANK trades at kr 206.50, about 4% below its 52-week high of kr 216.00 and 39% above the low of kr 148.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 100.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AVARDA BANK?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AVARDA BANK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price kr 206.50, calculated fair value kr 100.84 (−51%), Quality Score 61/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVARDA calculated?
We run AVARDA BANK through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 100.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AVARDA BANK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 206.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 100.84, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AVARDA BANK right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 126.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of AVARDA BANK
How large is the market capitalisation of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The market capitalisation of AVARDA BANK is 13.4B SEK (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AVARDA BANK is 4.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Earnings per share at AVARDA BANK are kr 10.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The dividend yield of AVARDA BANK is 2.4% (payout 45.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The net margin of AVARDA BANK is 23.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AVARDA BANK is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The return on assets (ROA) of AVARDA BANK is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The operating margin of AVARDA BANK is 45.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Revenue at AVARDA BANK is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Earnings per share at AVARDA BANK are growing +32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) carry?
The net debt of AVARDA BANK is 492M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch AVARDA BANK in the live analysis
One click puts AVARDA BANK on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
