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AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AVARDA BANK stock SEK 90.71, price SEK 222, that is 59.1% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services SE · ISIN SE0025666969

AB AVARDA BANK logo Some data Nov 5, 2026

AVARDA BANK

AVARDA · ST
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 59% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +27.3 %/yr in SEK)
Highly profitable · 36.8% net margin (TTM)
2.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +25%, profit +33%.
Quality 56/100
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Wide moat 79/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value kr 90.71 · Strongly overvalued (−59.1%)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 224.00 kr 40.29 Fair Value kr 90.71 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 40.29 – kr 224.00 · fair‑value band kr 64.59 – kr 126.94 · the kr 222.00 price screens above the kr 90.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Avarda Bank AB (publ), a digital credit and payment platform, provides consumer banking services and e-commerce solutions in Sweden. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Lending, Ecommerce Solutions, and Credit Cards.

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It offers deposit products; unsecured consumer loans; and digital payment solutions, as well as credit cards. The company serves private individuals in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Austria, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain.

Avarda Bank AB (publ) was formerly known as TF Bank AB (publ) and changed its name to Avarda Bank AB (publ) in April 2026. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Borås, Sweden.

Stock analysis

AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) currently trades at kr 222.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 90.71, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 101.56 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 222.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 26.70, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: kr 64.59 (bear) to kr 126.94 (bull), the price of kr 222.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

AVARDA BANK reported revenue of 2.9B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2022, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was 667M SEK in FY2025, compounding +24.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 14.4B SEK (≈ $1.5B) Small · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 6.78 · EPS (TTM) kr 12.48 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 36.8% · Return on equity 24.7% · Return on assets 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −59%, AVARDA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 64.59 Fair Value kr 90.71 Bull kr 126.94
Price kr 222.00 · Downside -59.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 6.39 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income kr 64.59 kr 90.71 kr 171.87 69
Gordon GGM kr 14.48 kr 28.57 kr 42.83 64
DDM Multi-Stage kr 14.48 kr 24.83 kr 30.20 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 14.48 kr 28.57 kr 42.83 64
DDM Multi-Stage kr 14.48 kr 24.83 kr 30.20 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 100.60 kr 134.13 kr 167.66 63
P/B Multiple kr 51.73 kr 68.98 kr 86.22 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 24.63 kr 33.01 kr 49.27 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 64.59 kr 90.71 kr 171.87 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 49
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 85
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 0
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 39
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 81
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 68
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 80
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
2025 sits 68% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.

AVARDA screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −59.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 24.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 36.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 45.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 24.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 17.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.37× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 6.78× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 18.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)99 · sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)45 · sector 68

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥7.28 ¥9.14 +26% vs AVARDA
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.44 ¥10.52 +25% vs AVARDA
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.85 ¥7.73 +13% vs AVARDA
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥11.91 ¥13.33 +12% vs AVARDA
Bank of America Corporation BAC $49.42 $42.16 −15% vs AVARDA
Citigroup Inc C $119.05 $96.55 −19% vs AVARDA
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $83.94 $66.59 −21% vs AVARDA
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $20.97 $14.73 −30% vs AVARDA
Royal Bank of Canada RY $201.16 $132.82 −34% vs AVARDA
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $334.49 $187.04 −44% vs AVARDA

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AVARDA BANK: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AVARDA BANK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVARDA

Frequently asked questions

Is AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 90.71 versus a price of kr 222.00, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVARDA?
Our model-based fair value for AVARDA BANK is kr 90.71 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 222.00.
What is the quality score of AVARDA?
AVARDA BANK has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 90.71 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 64.59, optimistic scenario kr 126.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AVARDA BANK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 90.71, about 59% lower versus a price of kr 222.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 64.59, optimistic scenario kr 126.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
AVARDA BANK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does AVARDA BANK pay a dividend?
AVARDA BANK currently shows a dividend yield of 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
AVARDA BANK pays a dividend of kr 5.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was May 6, 2026. The payout ratio is 40.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AVARDA BANK it is kr 90.71 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of kr 222.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is AVARDA BANK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, AVARDA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 222.00, fair value kr 90.71, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVARDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 222.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 90.71). For AVARDA BANK the two are kr 131.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AVARDA BANK worth?
The market values AVARDA BANK at about 14.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is kr 222.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 90.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVARDA?
Our models span a range for AVARDA BANK: cautious scenario kr 64.59, base kr 90.71, optimistic kr 126.94 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price kr 222.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVARDA?
AVARDA BANK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 90.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for AVARDA BANK (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 24.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVARDA from its 52-week high?
AVARDA BANK trades at kr 222.00, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 224.00 and 49% above the low of kr 148.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 90.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AVARDA BANK?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AVARDA BANK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price kr 222.00, calculated fair value kr 90.71 (−59%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVARDA calculated?
We run AVARDA BANK through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 90.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. AVARDA BANK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 222.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 90.71, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AVARDA BANK right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 126.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 64.59 to kr 126.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of AVARDA BANK

How large is the market capitalisation of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The market capitalisation of AVARDA BANK is 14.4B SEK (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AVARDA BANK is 6.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Earnings per share at AVARDA BANK are kr 12.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The dividend yield of AVARDA BANK is 2.3% (payout 40.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The net margin of AVARDA BANK is 36.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AVARDA BANK is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The return on assets (ROA) of AVARDA BANK is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
The operating margin of AVARDA BANK is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Revenue at AVARDA BANK is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AVARDA BANK (AVARDA)?
Earnings per share at AVARDA BANK are growing +32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) generate?
The free cash flow of AVARDA BANK is 762M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AVARDA BANK (AVARDA) carry?
The net debt of AVARDA BANK is 492M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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