Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avalo Therapeutics Inc stock $1.34, price $7.17, upside -81.3%, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.59 – $9,331 · fair‑value band $0.8800 – $1.68 · the $7.17 price screens above the $1.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.
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Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops IL-1ß-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in the Unites States.
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Its lead product includes AVTX-009, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds to interleukin-1ß, which is in phase 2 clinical trial to treat inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) currently trades at $7.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.34, 81.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.8800 (bear) to $1.68 (bull), the price of $7.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Avalo Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $59.0K in FY2025 versus $5.4M in FY2021, a compound −67.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$78.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $399M Small · EPS (TTM) $−4.31 · Return on equity −36.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −90.6% · Operating margin −154,847% · Revenue (TTM) $59.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) −69.3% · Free cash flow −$51.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −81%, AVTX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.8800Fair Value $1.34Bull$1.68
Price $7.17 · Upside -81.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−86.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−85.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−61.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−402.3% (2020) → −123,601.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 588 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−67.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−69.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.80× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.34 versus a price of $7.17, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVTX?
Our model-based fair value for Avalo Therapeutics Inc is $1.34 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.17.
What is the quality score of AVTX?
Avalo Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.34 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $1.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avalo Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.34, about −81% upside versus a price of $7.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $1.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Avalo Therapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $59.0K (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avalo Therapeutics Inc it is $1.34 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of $7.17. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avalo Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, AVTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.17, fair value $1.34, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.34). For Avalo Therapeutics Inc the two are $5.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avalo Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Avalo Therapeutics Inc at about $399M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is $7.17; our models calculate a fair value of $1.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVTX?
Our models span a range for Avalo Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $0.8800, base $1.34, optimistic $1.68 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price $7.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avalo Therapeutics Inc (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −36.3%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVTX from its 52-week high?
Avalo Therapeutics Inc trades at $7.17, about 69% below its 52-week high of $22.87 and 6% above the low of $6.75 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avalo Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avalo Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price $7.17, calculated fair value $1.34 (−81%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVTX calculated?
We run Avalo Therapeutics Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Avalo Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $7.17. Our model-based fair value is $1.34, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avalo Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.8800 to $1.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Avalo Therapeutics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
The market capitalisation of Avalo Therapeutics Inc is $399M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Earnings per share at Avalo Therapeutics Inc are $−4.31. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avalo Therapeutics Inc is −36.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avalo Therapeutics Inc is −90.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
The operating margin of Avalo Therapeutics Inc is −154,847% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX)?
Revenue at Avalo Therapeutics Inc is growing −69.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −85.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) generate?
The free cash flow of Avalo Therapeutics Inc is −$51.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) hold?
Avalo Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $13.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 31, 2026