Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bavarian Nordic DKK 557, price DKK 222, upside +150.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 115.75 – kr 401.70 · fair‑value band kr 387.49 – kr 723.79 · the kr 222.20 price screens below the kr 556.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines.
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Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) currently trades at kr 222.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 556.76, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 719.74 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 222.20 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 91.39, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 387.49 (bear) to kr 723.79 (bull), the price of kr 222.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bavarian Nordic reported revenue of 6.2B DKK in FY2025 versus 1.9B DKK in FY2021, a compound +34.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B DKK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 17.3B DKK (≈ $2.6B) · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 3.28 · EPS (TTM) kr 15.10 · Net margin 22.3% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin −0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 151%, BAVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 387.49Fair Value kr 556.76Bull kr 723.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 11.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28% vs 36%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.9% a year for the price and −3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (69 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+151% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bavarian Nordic Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAVA
Frequently asked questions
Is Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 556.76 versus a price of kr 222.20, about +151% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BAVA?
Our model-based fair value for Bavarian Nordic is kr 556.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 222.20.
What is the quality score of BAVA?
Bavarian Nordic has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 556.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 387.49, optimistic scenario kr 723.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bavarian Nordic stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 556.76, about +151% upside versus a price of kr 222.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 387.49, optimistic scenario kr 723.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Bavarian Nordic reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bavarian Nordic would have to grow free cash flow by -14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAVA use?
Our models discount Bavarian Nordic at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bavarian Nordic that is -14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bavarian Nordic grew +27.2 % a year. The price currently implies -14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bavarian Nordic (-14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.52 %: that much free cash flow Bavarian Nordic produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bavarian Nordic it is kr 556.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 222.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bavarian Nordic stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BAVA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 222.20, fair value kr 556.76, a gap of about +151% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 222.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 556.76). For Bavarian Nordic the two are kr 334.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bavarian Nordic worth?
The market values Bavarian Nordic at about 17.3B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 222.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 556.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAVA?
Our models span a range for Bavarian Nordic: cautious scenario kr 387.49, base kr 556.76, optimistic kr 723.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 222.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAVA?
Bavarian Nordic trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 556.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BAVA?
The PEG ratio of Bavarian Nordic is 1.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bavarian Nordic (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAVA from its 52-week high?
Bavarian Nordic trades at kr 222.20, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 242.10 and 29% above the low of kr 172.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 556.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bavarian Nordic?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bavarian Nordic stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 222.20, calculated fair value kr 556.76 (+151%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAVA calculated?
We run Bavarian Nordic through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 556.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bavarian Nordic currently trades 151 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 222.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 556.76, about +151% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bavarian Nordic right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 387.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 387.49 to kr 723.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) come from?
Earnings per share at Bavarian Nordic grew +35.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.8 %, EBIT margin +14.4 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bavarian Nordic
How large is the market capitalisation of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The market capitalisation of Bavarian Nordic is 17.3B DKK (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bavarian Nordic is 3.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Earnings per share at Bavarian Nordic are kr 15.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The net margin of Bavarian Nordic is 22.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bavarian Nordic is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bavarian Nordic is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
The operating margin of Bavarian Nordic is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Revenue at Bavarian Nordic is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bavarian Nordic (BAVA)?
Earnings per share at Bavarian Nordic are growing −92.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) hold?
Bavarian Nordic holds more cash than debt, 1.6B DKK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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