Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bank of Communications Co Ltd $49.95, price $26.69, upside +87.2%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.76 – $26.85 · fair‑value band $46.17 – $71.01 · the $26.69 price screens below the $49.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. provides commercial banking products and services in China and internationally.
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Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. provides commercial banking products and services in China and internationally. The company offers savings deposit products, including demand deposits, lump-sum deposits and withdrawal, time deposit of small savings for lump-sum withdrawal, interest withdrawal on principal deposited, time-demand deposit, call deposit, swap management, and education deposit; personal certificate of deposit; salary financing; and foreign currency deposit. It also provides credit, quasi-credit, and debit cards; new housing and second-hand mortgage loans and unsecured personal loans; personal wealth management advisor services; and precious metal and commodity trading services. In addition, the company offers corporate structured deposit and corporate certificate of deposit; corporate cash management; industrial chain finance program comprising prepayment financing, inventory financing, accounts receivable financing and accounts payable financing; syndicated loans; corporation overdraft; investment banking services; and offshore banking services. Further, the company provides bond account activation, bond distribution, and transaction services; related bond escrow and settlement, pledge registration, and principal and interest payment services; training and consulting services for cooperative banks; cross-border inter-bank payments system services; consignment sales of precious metal products; bond underwriting distribution; third party bond depository services; bank derivatives transfer; b-share transfer; bank-futures transfer; standard warehouse warrant pledged financing; institutional investment consulting, wealth management, and insurance services; and clearing and settlement services for future markets. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR (BCMXY) currently trades at $26.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.95, implying the stock looks roughly 46.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $55.02 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $26.69 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $27.83, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $46.17 (bear) to $71.01 (bull), the price of $26.69 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of 498B CNY in FY2025 versus 269B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was 93.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $87.6B · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) $3.84 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 18.7% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 87%, BCMXY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $46.17Fair Value $49.95Bull $71.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+140.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.5% vs 2.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.9% a year for the price and −9.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+42.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)45.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.94× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCMXY
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $49.95 versus a price of $26.69, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BCMXY?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is $49.95 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.69.
What is the quality score of BCMXY?
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $49.95 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $46.17, optimistic scenario $71.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $49.95, about +87% upside versus a price of $26.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $46.17, optimistic scenario $71.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 212B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCMXY use?
Our models discount Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.71 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR it is $49.95 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $26.69. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BCMXY trades below its calculated fair value: price $26.69, fair value $49.95, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCMXY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($49.95). For Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR the two are $23.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR at about $87.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $26.69; our models calculate a fair value of $49.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCMXY?
Our models span a range for Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $46.17, base $49.95, optimistic $71.01 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $26.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BCMXY?
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $49.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.5, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 18.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BCMXY?
The PEG ratio of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 1.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCMXY from its 52-week high?
Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR trades at $26.69, about 1% below its 52-week high of $26.85 and 33% above the low of $20.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $49.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $26.69, calculated fair value $49.95 (+87%), Quality Score 41/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCMXY calculated?
We run Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $49.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $26.69. Our model-based fair value is $49.95, about +87% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($46.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is $87.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR are $3.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 5.6% (payout 39.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The net margin of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 18.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
The operating margin of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Revenue at Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR are growing −11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BCMXY) carry?
The net debt of Bank of Communications Co Ltd ADR is 4.0T CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 49.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026