B&G Foods, Inc (BGS) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $317M

Below-average quality, screening 200% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• A fairly wide model range ($8.55 to $20.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.40 – $22.18 · fair‑value band $8.55 – $20.52 · the $3.52 price screens below the $10.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

B&G Foods, Inc (BGS) currently trades at $3.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.56, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, B&G Foods, Inc generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of -4.2%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.7%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $8.55 (bear case) to $20.52 (bull case); at $3.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 200%, BGS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($18.24) versus Growth DCF ($3.61). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. It operates through Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor Solutions segments.

Full company description

B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. It operates through Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor Solutions segments. The company offers frozen and canned vegetables, vegetables, canola and other cooking oils, vegetable shortening, cooking sprays, oatmeal and other hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, wine vinegar, maple syrups, molasses, salad dressings, pizza crusts, Mexican-style sauces, dry soups, taco shells and kits, salsas, pickles, peppers, tomato-based products, crackers, baking powder and soda, corn starch, nut clusters, and other specialty products. It markets its products under various brands, including Crisco, Clabber Girl, Bear Creek, Polaner, Underwood, B&G, Grandma's, New York Style, B&M, Baker's Joy, Regina, TrueNorth, Static Guard, SugarTwin, Brer Rabbit, Ortega, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, Cream of Wheat, Las Palmas, Victoria, Mama Mary's, Spring Tree, McCann's, Carey's, Vermont Maid, Green Giant, Dash, Spice Islands, Weber, Ac'cent, Tone's, Trappey's, Durkee, Wright's, B&G Sandwich Toppers, Bear Creek Country Kitchens, Canoleo, Cary's, Cream of Rice, Joan of Arc, MacDonald's, Molly McButter, New York Flatbreads, Old London, and Sa-són brands. The company sells and distributes its products directly, as well as through a network of independent brokers and distributors to supermarket chains, foodservice outlets, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, non-food outlets, and specialty distributors. The company was formerly known as B&G Foods Holdings Corp. and changed its name to B&G Foods, Inc. in October 2004. B&G Foods, Inc. was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

B&G Foods, Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$43.3M in FY2025.

Watch BGS: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.