Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA PLN 132, price PLN 124, upside +6.3%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 26.12 PLN – 126.60 PLN · fair‑value band 99.20 PLN – 165.33 PLN · the 124.40 PLN price screens below the 132.26 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Bank Handlowy w Warszawie in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Bank Handlowy w Warszawie is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking services for individual and corporate clients in Poland and internationally. The company operates in two segments, the Institutional Bank and Consumer Bank.
Show more
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking services for individual and corporate clients in Poland and internationally. The company operates in two segments, the Institutional Bank and Consumer Bank. The Institutional Bank segment offers traditional banking services, including credit and deposit services; cash management, trade financing, leasing, brokerage, and custody services in securities; treasury products on financial and commodity markets; investment banking services on the local and international capital markets, such as advisory services and underwriting financing via public and non-public issues of financial instruments; and proprietary transactions in the equity, debt, and derivative instruments markets to business entities, local government units, and the public sector. The Consumer Bank segment provides bank accounts, credit, deposits, cash loans, mortgage loans, credit cards, and asset management services, as well as acts as an agent in the sale of investment and insurance products to individuals, micro-enterprises, and individual entrepreneurs. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A. is a subsidiary of Citibank Europe plc.
Stock analysis
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) currently trades at 124.40 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 132.26 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 5.9% fairly valued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 157.02 PLN per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the 124.40 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 51.60 PLN, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 99.20 PLN (bear) to 165.33 PLN (bull), the price of 124.40 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA reported revenue of 3.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 2.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding +23.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.2B PLN (≈ $4.2B) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 4.84 · EPS (TTM) 13.75 PLN · Dividend yield 11.2% · Net margin 53.5% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 6%, BHW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 99.20 PLNFair Value 132.26 PLNBull 165.33 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.05 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+39.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 52%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−34.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −36.7% a year for the price and −3.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHW
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 132.26 PLN versus a price of 124.40 PLN, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BHW?
Our model-based fair value for Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 132.26 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 124.40 PLN.
What is the quality score of BHW?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 132.26 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 99.20 PLN, optimistic scenario 165.33 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 132.26 PLN, about +6% upside versus a price of 124.40 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 99.20 PLN, optimistic scenario 165.33 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA pay a dividend?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA would have to grow free cash flow by -34.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHW use?
Our models discount Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA that is -34.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -34.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (-34.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.61 %: that much free cash flow Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA it is 132.26 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 124.40 PLN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BHW trades below its calculated fair value: price 124.40 PLN, fair value 132.26 PLN, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (124.40 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (132.26 PLN). For Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA the two are 7.86 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA worth?
The market values Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA at about 16.2B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 124.40 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 132.26 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHW?
Our models span a range for Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA: cautious scenario 99.20 PLN, base 132.26 PLN, optimistic 165.33 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 124.40 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BHW?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 132.26 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 0.4, P/S 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BHW?
The PEG ratio of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 1.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BHW from its 52-week high?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA trades at 124.40 PLN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 126.60 PLN and 35% above the low of 92.16 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 132.26 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 124.40 PLN, calculated fair value 132.26 PLN (+6%), Quality Score 68/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHW calculated?
We run Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 132.26 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 124.40 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 132.26 PLN, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA grew +9.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The market capitalisation of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 16.2B PLN (≈ $4.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 4.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Earnings per share at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA are 13.75 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The dividend yield of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 11.2% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The net margin of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 53.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
The operating margin of Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is 61.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Revenue at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA is growing +23.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW)?
Earnings per share at Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA are growing −11.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA (BHW) hold?
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA holds more cash than debt, 4.6B PLN net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA in the live analysis
One click puts Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
