BioAge Labs, Inc (BIOA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $968M

Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($3.92 to $7.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (22 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

22‑month range $3.04 – $25.83 · fair‑value band $3.92 – $7.42 · the $11.72 price screens above the $5.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

BioAge Labs, Inc (BIOA) currently trades at $11.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.94, implying the stock looks roughly 49.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $10.3M. Revenue grew 91.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -26.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $183M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.92 (bear case) to $7.42 (bull case); at $11.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 188% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -49%, BIOA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BioAge Labs, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops therapeutic product candidates for metabolic diseases. The company's technology platform and differentiated human datasets that allows users to identify targets based on insights into molecular changes that drive aging.

Full company description

BioAge Labs, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops therapeutic product candidates for metabolic diseases. The company's technology platform and differentiated human datasets that allows users to identify targets based on insights into molecular changes that drive aging. Its lead product candidate includes BGE-102, an orally available brain-penetrant small-molecule NLRP3 inhibitor which is in Phase 1 clinical trail for the treatment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, as well as for the treatment of diabetic macular edema and geographic atrophy; and develops APJ agonists for obesity, including programs targeting both oral and parenteral administration. The company has collaboration agreement with Novartis Pharma AG to identify and validate novel therapeutic drug targets by investigating the biological mechanisms that drive diseases related to aging and mediate. BioAge Labs, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2017 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BioAge Labs, Inc reported revenue of $9.0M in FY2025 versus $14.9M in FY2017, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$80.6M in FY2025.

BIOA screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.