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Data-driven stock valuation

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR (BMBOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $14.3B · ISIN US40052V1044

At a glance

GB Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR logo Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR BMBOY · US
Price$13.96
Fair Value$16.34
Upside+17.1%
Quality56/100

A solid business, trading 15% below our fair value of $16.34.

As of Aug 26, 2026, the fair value of Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR is $16.34 per share against a price of $13.96, so the fair value sits 17% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·1.84% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $5.84 to $27.42
Evidence: Medium Range $5.84 to $27.42

Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 26, 2026, revised from $16.22 to $16.34 (+0.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.

Watch Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($5.84 to $27.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$20.98 $4.17 Fair Value $16.34 Sep 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.17 – $20.98 · fair‑value band $5.84 – $27.42 · the $13.96 price screens below the $16.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR (BMBOY) currently trades at $13.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.34, implying the stock looks roughly 14.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $161.15 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $13.96 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $62.45, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR generated revenue of $424B at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at $180B. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026

Scenario range: $5.84 (bear) to $27.42 (bull), the price of $13.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 17%, BMBOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4332 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $96.12 $105.56 $148.98 76
EPV $144.46 $189.06 $228.09 74
FCF DCF $23.96 $115.92 $261.69 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $23.96 $115.92 $261.69 72
Owner Earnings $22.34 $113.29 $257.45 68
5Y Revenue Exit $128.04 $320.81 $574.94 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $253.22 $561.67 $933.64 72
5Y P/E Exit $23.56 $119.78 $223.02 65
10Y Revenue Exit $79.71 $248.26 $489.56 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $170.39 $418.07 $770.66 64
10Y P/E Exit $22.33 $106.52 $213.76 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $70.36 $249.48 $335.85 64
Lynch FV $58.52 $83.60 $108.68 61
PEG = 1.0 $58.52 $83.60 $108.68 57
EPV $144.46 $189.06 $228.09 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $35.62 $74.07 $117.50 66
DDM Multi-Stage $35.62 $62.45 $77.73 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $162.96 $217.28 $271.61 63
P/S Multiple $131.92 $175.90 $219.87 58
P/B Multiple $131.92 $175.90 $219.87 55
EV/EBIT $320.39 $468.23 $616.07 65
EV/EBITDA $427.13 $610.55 $793.97 67
EV/Revenue $193.42 $329.09 $464.75 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $55.63 $74.54 $111.25 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $25.48 $116.04 $259.34 70
Rev-Margin DCF $128.04 $316.13 $538.95 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $96.12 $105.56 $148.98 76
ROIC Compounder $155.43 $240.20 $354.08 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $112.81 $161.15 $209.50 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($217.28) versus Dividend Discount ($62.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 22.2
P/S ratio 0.58 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.6300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2
Dividend yield 1.8% payout 40.8%
Net margin 2.6% FY2025
Return on equity 10.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 7.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $424B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.0% 3y avg +2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +34.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $13.4B FY2025
Net debt $180B FY2025 · ≈ 13.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and markets bakery products. It offers sliced bread, buns and rolls, pastries, cakes, cookies, toast, English muffins, bagels, tortillas and flatbreads, and salty snacks. The company operates Mexico, North America, Central America, Latin America, Europe and Africa, and Asia.

Full company description

Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and markets bakery products. It offers sliced bread, buns and rolls, pastries, cakes, cookies, toast, English muffins, bagels, tortillas and flatbreads, and salty snacks. The company operates Mexico, North America, Central America, Latin America, Europe and Africa, and Asia. Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1945 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR reported revenue of 427B MXN in FY2025 versus 349B MXN in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B MXN in FY2025, compounding −8.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$427B
Latest YoY
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in MXN) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.2%
Dividend yield1.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 5.2% vs 10Y 8.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7.7% (2020) → 8.8% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop64% (2012) · in USD
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY21 349B MXN
FY22 399B MXN
FY23 400B MXN
FY24 408B MXN
FY25 427B MXN
Net income −8.5%/yr
FY21 15.9B MXN
FY22 31.5B MXN
FY23 15.5B MXN
FY24 12.5B MXN
FY25 11.1B MXN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +12.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.1 %

of which total revenue +7.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.8 %

EBIT margin +3.2 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR · Fair Value
$16.34 +15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMBOY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.18× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.2× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.48× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE56 · sector 24
FUTURE0 · sector 20
PAST43 · sector 28
HEALTH41 · sector 96
DIVIDEND37 · sector 54

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 78.76 CHF 57.26 −27%
Danone S.A BN €64.28 €48.41 −25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,478 ₹251.94 −83%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $24.85 $24.59 −1%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.05 ¥21.93 −37%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥25.51 ¥32.50 +27%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.28 ¥9.89 −61%
General Mills, Inc GIS $38.29 $28.32 −26%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.64 SGD 3.89 SGD +7%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,511 ₹1,765 −68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR (BMBOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.34 versus a price of $13.96, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BMBOY?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR is $16.34 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.96.
What is the quality score of BMBOY?
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR (BMBOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.34 (as of Aug 26, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.84, optimistic scenario $27.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.34, about +17% upside versus a price of $13.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.84, optimistic scenario $27.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR (BMBOY)?
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $424B (latest available figure, as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BMBOY?
The net profit margin of Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR is about 2.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR pay a dividend?
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 26, 2026).
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