BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BNCCorp Inc $33.37, price $31.00, upside +7.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.88 – $37.50 · fair‑value band $28.02 – $36.89 · the $31.00 price screens below the $33.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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BNCCORP, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for BNC National Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States.
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BNCCORP, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for BNC National Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. The company offers a range of commercial banking services, such as business financing, commercial real estate lending, small business administration loans, business checking, cash management, corporate credit cards, and merchant services to small to middle-sized businesses. It also provides retail banking services, including personal checking and savings products, personal loans, and card services; and wealth management solutions, such as personal wealth advisory services, 401(k), other retirement plan administration, and trust services. In addition, the company offers business loans comprising revolving lines of credit, working capital loans, equipment financing, construction loans, letters of credit, aircraft loans, and agribusiness loans; and vehicle loans, home equity line of credit, and real estate loans. Further, it provides retirement plans for businesses; and online and mobile banking services. The company offers community banking and wealth management services in Arizona and North Dakota. BNCCORP, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.
Stock analysis
BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) currently trades at $31.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.37, implying the stock looks roughly 7.1% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.37 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $31.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.26, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.02 (bear) to $36.89 (bull), the price of $31.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BNCCorp Inc reported revenue of $39.9M in FY2025 versus $76.0M in FY2021, a compound −14.9%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $109M · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $2.51 · Dividend yield 12.3% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 8%, BNCC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.02Fair Value $33.37Bull $36.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.3%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 24%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BNCCorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BNCC
Frequently asked questions
Is BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.37 versus a price of $31.00, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BNCC?
Our model-based fair value for BNCCorp Inc is $33.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.00.
What is the quality score of BNCC?
BNCCorp Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.02, optimistic scenario $36.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BNCCorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.37, about +8% upside versus a price of $31.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $28.02, optimistic scenario $36.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
BNCCorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $40.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does BNCCorp Inc pay a dividend?
BNCCorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BNCCorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -19.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BNCC use?
Our models discount BNCCorp Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BNCCorp Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BNCCorp Inc grew -19.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BNCCorp Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.46 %: that much free cash flow BNCCorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BNCCorp Inc it is $33.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $31.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BNCCorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BNCC trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.00, fair value $33.37, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNCC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.37). For BNCCorp Inc the two are $2.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BNCCorp Inc worth?
The market values BNCCorp Inc at about $109M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $31.00; our models calculate a fair value of $33.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNCC?
Our models span a range for BNCCorp Inc: cautious scenario $28.02, base $33.37, optimistic $36.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $31.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BNCC?
BNCCorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Balance-sheet figures for BNCCorp Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BNCC from its 52-week high?
BNCCorp Inc trades at $31.00, about 17% below its 52-week high of $37.50 and 3% above the low of $30.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BNCCorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BNCCorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $31.00, calculated fair value $33.37 (+8%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNCC calculated?
We run BNCCorp Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. BNCCorp Inc currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.00. Our model-based fair value is $33.37, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BNCCorp Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of BNCCorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The market capitalisation of BNCCorp Inc is $109M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BNCCorp Inc is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Earnings per share at BNCCorp Inc are $2.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The dividend yield of BNCCorp Inc is 12.3% (payout 151%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The net margin of BNCCorp Inc is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BNCCorp Inc is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BNCCorp Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
The operating margin of BNCCorp Inc is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Revenue at BNCCorp Inc is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BNCCorp Inc (BNCC)?
Earnings per share at BNCCorp Inc are growing −12.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BNCCorp Inc (BNCC) carry?
The net debt of BNCCorp Inc is $33.5M (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026