Danone S.A (BSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · DE · Market cap €46.4B · ISIN FR0000120644
What is Danone S.A really worth?
A solid business, but trading 17% above our fair value of €54.29.
As of Aug 23, 2026, the fair value of Danone S.A is €54.29 per share against a price of €63.74, so the fair value sits 15% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −6.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€33.34 to €74.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €40.23 – €76.87 · fair‑value band €33.34 – €74.57 · the €63.74 price screens above the €54.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Danone S.A (BSN) currently trades at €63.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €54.29, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €52.76 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the €63.74 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €17.65, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Danone S.A generated revenue of €27.3B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at €13.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €33.34 (bear case) to €74.57 (bull case); at €63.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −15%, BSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.3888 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€52.76) versus Asset-Based (€17.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments.
Full company description
Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments. It produces and distributes yogurts, dairy products, coffee creations and drinks, beverages, plant-based products, ice creams, frozen desserts, and cheese products. The company also provides specialized nutrition, including formulas and complementary feeding for babies and young children; and special medical purposes food for children and adults. In addition, it offers tube feeding products and oral nutritional supplements. Further, the company provides mineral waters from natural sources, waters infused with natural fruit extracts, fruit juices, and vitamins. The company offers its products under the Actimel, Activia, Alpro, Aptamil, Danette, Danio, Danonino, evian, Nutricia, Nutrilon, Volvic, Danone, Oikos, YoPRO, International Delight, SToK, Silk, So Delicious, Cow & Gate, Bebelac, SGM, Dumex, HiQ, Nursie, Phosphatine, Mizone, Blédina, Nutrison, Fortimel, Neocate, Nutridrink, AQUA, Bonafont, Salus, Hayat, Sirma, Font Vella, Lanjarón, and Zywiec Zdroj brands.It distributes its products through retail chains and traditional market outlets; convenience stores; hotels, restaurants, and coffee outlets; hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies; and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Groupe Danone and changed its name to Danone S.A. in April 2009. Danone S.A. was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Danone S.A reported revenue of €27.3B in FY2025 versus €24.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding −1.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BSN screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $24.85 | $24.59 | −1% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $38.29 | $28.32 | −26% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
| McCormick & Company MKCV | $55.65 | $43.29 | −22% |
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