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Danone S.A (BSN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · DE · Market cap €46.4B · ISIN FR0000120644

What is Danone S.A really worth?

DS Danone S.A BSN · XETRA
Price€63.74
Fair Value€54.29
Upside−14.8%
Quality62/100

A solid business, but trading 17% above our fair value of €54.29.

As of Aug 23, 2026, the fair value of Danone S.A is €54.29 per share against a price of €63.74, so the fair value sits 15% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin
!Moderate moat 50/100

For context

·3.53% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €33.34 – €74.57

Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Share price −6.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (€33.34 to €74.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€76.87 €40.23 Fair Value €54.29 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €40.23 – €76.87 · fair‑value band €33.34 – €74.57 · the €63.74 price screens above the €54.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

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Analysis

Danone S.A (BSN) currently trades at €63.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €54.29, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €52.76 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the €63.74 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €17.65, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Danone S.A generated revenue of €27.3B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at €13.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €33.34 (bear case) to €74.57 (bull case); at €63.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −15%, BSN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.3888 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €32.66 €49.42 €76.41 79
Growth DCF €34.23 €50.31 €74.75 78
Owner Earnings €23.05 €36.12 €57.16 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €32.66 €49.42 €76.41 79
Owner Earnings €23.05 €36.12 €57.16 75
5Y Revenue Exit €31.29 €51.37 €77.86 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €46.80 €78.15 €115.72 74
5Y P/E Exit €29.63 €48.48 €68.65 70
10Y Revenue Exit €30.19 €47.96 €68.83 66
10Y EBITDA Exit €41.01 €65.79 €94.94 68
10Y P/E Exit €30.40 €46.04 €62.48 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €19.32 €37.00 €46.14 66
EPV €32.39 €39.62 €45.94 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €19.72 €27.19 €34.79 69
DDM Multi-Stage €19.72 €27.41 €36.46 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €44.74 €59.65 €74.57 63
P/S Multiple €36.22 €48.29 €60.36 58
P/B Multiple €36.22 €48.29 €60.36 55
EV/EBIT €61.80 €86.05 €110.31 66
EV/EBITDA €65.25 €90.66 €116.06 67
EV/Revenue €33.64 €52.76 €71.88 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €13.17 €17.65 €26.35 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €34.23 €50.31 €74.75 78
Rev-Margin DCF €31.29 €52.03 €75.51 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income €23.80 €26.72 €39.89 75
ROIC Compounder €32.94 €41.98 €51.58 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €32.08 €45.82 €59.57 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (€52.76) versus Asset-Based (€17.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 22.6
P/S ratio 1.51 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €2.82 price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6
Dividend yield 3.5% payout 79.8%
Net margin 6.7% FY2025
Return on equity 10.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €27.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.5% 3y avg −0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −2.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €2.7B FY2025
Net debt €13.1B FY2025 · ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments.

Full company description

Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments. It produces and distributes yogurts, dairy products, coffee creations and drinks, beverages, plant-based products, ice creams, frozen desserts, and cheese products. The company also provides specialized nutrition, including formulas and complementary feeding for babies and young children; and special medical purposes food for children and adults. In addition, it offers tube feeding products and oral nutritional supplements. Further, the company provides mineral waters from natural sources, waters infused with natural fruit extracts, fruit juices, and vitamins. The company offers its products under the Actimel, Activia, Alpro, Aptamil, Danette, Danio, Danonino, evian, Nutricia, Nutrilon, Volvic, Danone, Oikos, YoPRO, International Delight, SToK, Silk, So Delicious, Cow & Gate, Bebelac, SGM, Dumex, HiQ, Nursie, Phosphatine, Mizone, Blédina, Nutrison, Fortimel, Neocate, Nutridrink, AQUA, Bonafont, Salus, Hayat, Sirma, Font Vella, Lanjarón, and Zywiec Zdroj brands.It distributes its products through retail chains and traditional market outlets; convenience stores; hotels, restaurants, and coffee outlets; hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies; and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Groupe Danone and changed its name to Danone S.A. in April 2009. Danone S.A. was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Danone S.A reported revenue of €27.3B in FY2025 versus €24.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding −1.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€27.3B
Latest YoY
−0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +9.2% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in EUR
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.7%
Dividend yield3.5%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −1.0% vs 10Y 3.0%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11.8% (2020) → 13.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop67% (2009) · in EUR
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 89% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain), so this rate uses the operating basis instead of reported profit
Revenue +3.0%/yr
FY21 €24.3B
FY22 €27.7B
FY23 €27.6B
FY24 €27.4B
FY25 €27.3B
Net income −1.3%/yr
FY21 €1.9B
FY22 €959M
FY23 €881M
FY24 €2.0B
FY25 €1.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.9 %

of which total revenue +2.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %

EBIT margin −0.1 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

BSN screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Danone S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BSN.XETRA

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Danone S.A (BSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €54.29 versus a price of €63.74, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BSN?
Our model-based fair value for Danone S.A is €54.29 (as of Aug 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €63.74.
What is the quality score of BSN?
Danone S.A has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Danone S.A (BSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €54.29 (as of Aug 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €33.34, optimistic scenario €74.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Danone S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €54.29, about −15% upside versus a price of €63.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €33.34, optimistic scenario €74.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Danone S.A (BSN)?
Danone S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €27.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 23, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BSN?
The net profit margin of Danone S.A is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Danone S.A pay a dividend?
Danone S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 23, 2026).
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