Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Bubs Australia Ltd A$0.17, price A$0.10, upside +73.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.6688 · fair‑value band A$0.1000 – A$0.2900 · the A$0.0980 price screens below the A$0.1700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products.
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Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products. It also provides organic baby food, cereals, toddler snacks, and chilled goat milk. In addition, the company holds IP and trademarks. It sells its products under the Bubs and Caprilac brands. The company exports its products to China, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Middle East, and North America. Bubs Australia Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Dandenong, Australia.
Stock analysis
Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) currently trades at A$0.0980, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1700, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.2800 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.0980 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1000 (bear) to A$0.2900 (bull), the price of A$0.0980 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bubs Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$103M in FY2025 versus A$39.3M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$87.5M (≈ $61.4M) · P/S ratio 0.65 · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.7% · Operating margin 2.7% · Revenue (TTM) A$110M · Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 73%, BUB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1000Fair Value A$0.1700Bull A$0.2900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +49.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.7% (2020) → 4.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.8% a year for the price and +6.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.1% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bubs Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BUB
Frequently asked questions
Is Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1700 versus a price of A$0.0980, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BUB?
Our model-based fair value for Bubs Australia Ltd is A$0.1700 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0980.
What is the quality score of BUB?
Bubs Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1700 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bubs Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1700, about +73% upside versus a price of A$0.0980 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Bubs Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$110M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bubs Australia Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BUB use?
Our models discount Bubs Australia Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bubs Australia Ltd that is +3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bubs Australia Ltd grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bubs Australia Ltd (+3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.91 %: that much free cash flow Bubs Australia Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bubs Australia Ltd it is A$0.1700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.0980. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bubs Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BUB trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0980, fair value A$0.1700, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0980); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1700). For Bubs Australia Ltd the two are A$0.0720 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bubs Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Bubs Australia Ltd at about A$87.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0980; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUB?
Our models span a range for Bubs Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1000, base A$0.1700, optimistic A$0.2900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.0980). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bubs Australia Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BUB from its 52-week high?
Bubs Australia Ltd trades at A$0.0980, about 41% below its 52-week high of A$0.1650 and 27% above the low of A$0.0770 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bubs Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bubs Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.0980, calculated fair value A$0.1700 (+73%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUB calculated?
We run Bubs Australia Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bubs Australia Ltd currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$0.0980. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1700, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bubs Australia Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.1000 to A$0.2900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Bubs Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The market capitalisation of Bubs Australia Ltd is A$87.5M (≈ $61.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bubs Australia Ltd is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The net margin of Bubs Australia Ltd is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bubs Australia Ltd is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bubs Australia Ltd is −33.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
The operating margin of Bubs Australia Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Revenue at Bubs Australia Ltd is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB)?
Earnings per share at Bubs Australia Ltd are growing −49.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bubs Australia Ltd (BUB) hold?
Bubs Australia Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$16.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026