Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$71.5M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.1040 to A$0.0992 (−4.6%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +17.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from A$0.0810 (bear) to A$0.1265 (bull), base A$0.0992. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.6688 · fair‑value band A$0.0810 – A$0.1265 · the A$0.0940 price screens below the A$0.0992 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) currently trades at A$0.0940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0992, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bubs Australia Limited generated revenue of A$110M at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$16.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0810 (bear case) to A$0.1265 (bull case); at A$0.0940, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 6%, BUB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.7200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products.
Full company description
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products. It also provides organic baby food, cereals, toddler snacks, and chilled goat milk. In addition, the company holds IP and trademarks. It sells its products under the Bubs and Caprilac brands. The company exports its products to China, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Middle East, and North America. Bubs Australia Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Dandenong, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bubs Australia Limited reported revenue of A$103M in FY2025 versus A$39.3M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.5M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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