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Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$71.5M

BA Bubs Australia Limited BUB · AU
PriceA$0.0940
Fair ValueA$0.0992
Upside+5.5%
Quality63/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/12)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range A$0.0810 – A$0.1265 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.1040 to A$0.0992 (−4.6%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +17.5% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from A$0.0810 (bear) to A$0.1265 (bull), base A$0.0992. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$0.6688 A$0.0770 Fair Value A$0.0992 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.6688 · fair‑value band A$0.0810 – A$0.1265 · the A$0.0940 price screens below the A$0.0992 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) currently trades at A$0.0940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0992, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Bubs Australia Limited generated revenue of A$110M at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$16.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$0.0810 (bear case) to A$0.1265 (bull case); at A$0.0940, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 6%, BUB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$0.0900 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 80
Residual Income A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0600 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.0900 A$0.1300 A$0.2300 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.1000 A$0.1300 A$0.2300 38
Owner Earnings A$0.1000 A$0.1800 A$0.3100 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.0800 A$0.1200 A$0.1900 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.0900 A$0.1300 A$0.2200 41
5Y P/E Exit A$0.1100 A$0.2200 A$0.3700 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.0900 A$0.1500 A$0.1800 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$0.0900 A$0.1600 A$0.2700 37
10Y P/E Exit A$0.1100 A$0.2000 A$0.3600 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.0400 A$0.2900 A$0.4100 54
Lynch FV A$0.1500 A$0.2200 A$0.2800 50
PEG = 1.0 A$0.1500 A$0.2200 A$0.2800 46
EPV A$0.0500 A$0.0600 A$0.0600 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$0.4600 A$0.7600 A$0.9900 70
DDM Multi-Stage A$0.4600 A$0.7200 A$0.8200 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.1000 A$0.1300 A$0.1600 63
P/S Multiple A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1300 58
P/B Multiple A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1300 55
EV/EBIT A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1300 53
EV/EBITDA A$0.0800 A$0.1000 A$0.1200 54
EV/Revenue A$0.0700 A$0.0900 A$0.1000 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.0900 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.0900 A$0.1300 A$0.2300 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0600 76
ROIC Compounder A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.0700 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.2000 A$0.2800 A$0.3700 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.7200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$110M
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4%
Net margin 3.5%
Return on equity 9.1%
Free cash flow A$6.0M FY2025
Operating margin 2.7%
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) -49.8%
Net cash A$16.5M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 89
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 4
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products.

Full company description

Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formulas, goat milk powder products for adults, and fresh dairy products. It also provides organic baby food, cereals, toddler snacks, and chilled goat milk. In addition, the company holds IP and trademarks. It sells its products under the Bubs and Caprilac brands. The company exports its products to China, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Middle East, and North America. Bubs Australia Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Dandenong, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bubs Australia Limited reported revenue of A$103M in FY2025 versus A$39.3M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$103M
Latest YoY
+28.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.6%
Revenue +27.1%/yr
FY21 A$39.3M
FY22 A$89.3M
FY23 A$60.1M
FY24 A$79.7M
FY25 A$103M
Net income
FY21 −A$74.7M
FY22 −A$11.4M
FY23 −A$108M
FY24 −A$21.0M
FY25 A$5.5M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bubs Australia Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BUB

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 652 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +6% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 8.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 42 · sector 24
FUTURE 72 · sector 19
PAST 36 · sector 28
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,507 ₹362.37 -76%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,646 ₹1,870 -67%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,062 ₹327.27 -69%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 7,550 IDR 12,864 IDR +70%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,219,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -17%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹352.60 ₹144.77 -59%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 61,600 VND 52,858 VND -14%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,665 IDR 2,699 IDR +62%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,630 IDR 4,350 IDR -6%
Nongshim Co 004370 389,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0992 versus a price of A$0.0940, about +6% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BUB?
Our model-based fair value for Bubs Australia Limited is A$0.0992 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$0.0940.
What is the quality score of BUB?
Bubs Australia Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Bubs Australia Limited (BUB)?
Bubs Australia Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$110M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BUB?
The net profit margin of Bubs Australia Limited is about 3.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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