Casta Diva Group (CDG) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · IT · Market cap €60.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from €3.52 to €2.11 (−40.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€1.47 to €2.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.2752 – €3.30 · fair‑value band €1.47 – €2.74 · the €3.01 price screens above the €2.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Casta Diva Group (CDG) currently trades at €3.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.11, implying the stock looks roughly 29.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Casta Diva Group generated revenue of €123M at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at €16.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1.47 (bear case) to €2.74 (bull case); at €3.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 156% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -30%, CDG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€2.17) versus Asset-Based (€0.3200). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Casta Diva Group S.p.A. operates as a communication company in Italy and internationally. The company engages in the production of films, commercials, digital videos, videos for events and corporate, documentaries, and TV.
Full company description
Casta Diva Group S.p.A. operates as a communication company in Italy and internationally. The company engages in the production of films, commercials, digital videos, videos for events and corporate, documentaries, and TV. It also designs and manages events, such as conventions, roadshows, product launches, exhibition stands, team building, festivals, press conferences, Web events, celebrations, VIP parties, and video mappings. In addition, the company operates jazz club and restaurant; hosts jazz and live music venues; and produces summer festivals and outdoor events for its partners and customers. The company is based in Milan, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Casta Diva Group reported revenue of €123M in FY2024 versus €16.7M in FY2020, a compound +64.8%/yr. Reported net income was €938K in FY2024.
CDG screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Peer Group
Entertainment · 265 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.77 | C$2.96 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €18.91 | €14.78 | -22% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹298.25 | ₹63.45 | -79% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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