Universal Music Group (UMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · NL · Market cap €34.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −19.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (€9.78 to €18.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range €14.44 – €27.94 · fair‑value band €9.78 – €18.93 · the €15.16 price screens above the €14.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Universal Music Group (UMG) currently trades at €15.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.78, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Universal Music Group generated revenue of €12.5B at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at €3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.78 (bear case) to €18.93 (bull case); at €15.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -2%, UMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€16.10) versus Asset-Based (€1.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments.
Full company description
Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. Its Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations. The Music Publishing segment discovers and develops songwriters, as well as owns and administers the copyright for musical compositions used in recordings, public performances, and related uses, such as films and advertisements. Its Merchandising & Other segment produces and sells artist and other branded products through various sales channels, including fashion retail, concert touring, and online, as well as offers brand rights management services. Universal Music Group N.V. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Universal Music Group reported revenue of €12.5B in FY2025 versus €8.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Universal Music Group Record Low; Roblox Slumps | Stock Movers
- Universal Music Q2 revenue jumps on streaming, Downtown deal despite margin woes
- Universal Music Group N.V. Reports Weekly Transactions under and Completion of its €500 Million Share Buyback Program
- Universal Music Group N.V. Reports Weekly Transactions under its €500 Million Share Buyback Program
Peer Group
Entertainment · 268 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.77 | C$2.96 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| Oriental Pearl Group 600637 | ¥7.86 | ¥4.38 | -44% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹235.99 | ₹61.98 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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