Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc $13.34, price $11.22, upside +18.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.08 – $15.38 · fair‑value band $12.31 – $16.53 · the $11.22 price screens below the $13.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market.
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Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.
Stock analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) currently trades at $11.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.34, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $35.59 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the $11.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.37, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.31 (bear) to $16.53 (bull), the price of $11.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported revenue of $198M in FY2025 versus $170M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $70.0M in FY2025, compounding −18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $796M · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 5.67 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Dividend yield 14.3% · Net margin 35.4% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 19%, CGBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.31Fair Value $13.34Bull $16.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)14.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 86%
Compare Carlyle Secured Lending Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+19% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)74% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)14.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.34 versus a price of $11.22, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CGBD?
Our model-based fair value for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $13.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.22.
What is the quality score of CGBD?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.31, optimistic scenario $16.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.34, about +19% upside versus a price of $11.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.31, optimistic scenario $16.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $265M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc pay a dividend?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 14.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlyle Secured Lending Inc it is $13.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.22. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CGBD trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.22, fair value $13.34, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.34). For Carlyle Secured Lending Inc the two are $2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc worth?
The market values Carlyle Secured Lending Inc at about $796M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.22; our models calculate a fair value of $13.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGBD?
Our models span a range for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc: cautious scenario $12.31, base $13.34, optimistic $16.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGBD?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 0.7, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CGBD?
The PEG ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 3.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGBD from its 52-week high?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc trades at $11.22, about 7% below its 52-week high of $12.07 and 12% above the low of $9.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlyle Secured Lending Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.22, calculated fair value $13.34 (+19%), Quality Score 43/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGBD calculated?
We run Carlyle Secured Lending Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Carlyle Secured Lending Inc currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.22. Our model-based fair value is $13.34, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlyle Secured Lending Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The market capitalisation of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $796M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 5.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The dividend yield of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 14.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The net margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 35.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The operating margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 74.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Revenue at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is growing +16.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc are growing −40.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) generate?
The free cash flow of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is −$205M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) carry?
The net debt of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026