Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock $13.37, price $11.17, upside +19.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.98 – $14.90 · fair‑value band $10.03 – $15.39 · the $11.17 price screens below the $13.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Carlyle Secured Lending in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Carlyle Secured Lending is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market.
Show moreShow less
It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector.
The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.
Stock analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) currently trades at $11.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.37, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $14.58 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $11.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.94, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.03 (bear) to $15.39 (bull), the price of $11.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported revenue of $198M in FY2025 versus $170M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $70.0M in FY2025, compounding −18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $792M Small · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 3.05 · EPS (TTM) $0.5100 · Dividend yield 13.9% · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 20%, CGBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.03Fair Value $13.37Bull$15.39
Price $11.17 · Upside +19.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $273,903 and none bought.
SaleJohn G. NestorDirector5× since Nov 14, 2025: 35,970 shares, avg. $11.33$407,680Aug 12, 2026
BuyFrancis TaylorTreasurer232 shares at $11.22$2,603Mar 20, 2026
BuyAlex ChiCEO, Director9,000 shares at $10.79$97,110Mar 9, 2026
BuyThomas M HenniganCFO and President, Director2× since Nov 13, 2025: 12,830 shares, avg. $11.77$151,018Mar 4, 2026
BuyNelson JosephPAO1,500 shares at $11.84$17,760Nov 10, 2025
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.1%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 6.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 86%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (73 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Carlyle Secured Lending Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 588 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+19.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)14.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)74.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)13.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.37 versus a price of $11.17, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CGBD?
Our model-based fair value for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $13.37 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.17.
What is the quality score of CGBD?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.37 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $15.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.37, about +20% upside versus a price of $11.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $15.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $260M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc pay a dividend?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 13.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc pays a dividend of $1.55 per share a year, a dividend yield of 13.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlyle Secured Lending Inc it is $13.37 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $11.17. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CGBD trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.17, fair value $13.37, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.37). For Carlyle Secured Lending Inc the two are $2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc worth?
The market values Carlyle Secured Lending Inc at about $792M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $11.17; our models calculate a fair value of $13.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGBD?
Our models span a range for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc: cautious scenario $10.03, base $13.37, optimistic $15.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $11.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGBD?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.37 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 12.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 0.7, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CGBD?
The PEG ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 3.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGBD from its 52-week high?
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc trades at $11.17, about 4% below its 52-week high of $11.69 and 15% above the low of $9.67 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlyle Secured Lending Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $11.17, calculated fair value $13.37 (+20%), Quality Score 43/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGBD calculated?
We run Carlyle Secured Lending Inc through 7 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.37 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Carlyle Secured Lending Inc currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.17. Our model-based fair value is $13.37, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlyle Secured Lending Inc right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The market capitalisation of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $792M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 3.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc are $0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The dividend yield of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 13.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The net margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
The operating margin of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is 74.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Revenue at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is growing −7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)?
Earnings per share at Carlyle Secured Lending Inc are growing −40.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) generate?
The free cash flow of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is −$205M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) carry?
The net debt of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Carlyle Secured Lending Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Carlyle Secured Lending Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 8, 2026