Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chiba Bank Ltd stock $54.10, price $90.24, that is 40.0% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.07 – $91.14 · fair‑value band $50.12 – $63.36 · the $90.24 price screens above the $54.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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The Chiba Bank, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in Japan and internationally.
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It engages in various businesses, including securities, investment management and advisory, software development, commissioned computation tasks, research and investigation of IT and financial technologies, leasing, operation and management of investment funds, mergers and acquisition advisory, credit guarantee businesses, and management and collection of claims.
Further, the company provides loan guarantees and fee collection services; and accounting, general administration entrustment, and staffing services, as well as outsources operational business.
Additionally, it rents and maintains office buildings and welfare facilities; provides research, survey, and consulting services; offers agricultural services; purchases and sells supplies and consumer goods; and engages in renewable energy generation. The company serves individuals and corporations.
The Chiba Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1943 and is headquartered in Chiba, Japan.
Stock analysis
Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) currently trades at $90.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.10, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $69.51 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $90.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.26, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $50.12 (bear) to $63.36 (bull), the price of $90.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chiba Bank Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥423B in FY2026 versus ¥216B in FY2022, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥99.7B in FY2026, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $12.7B Large · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 4.52 · EPS (TTM) $4.71 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 23.6% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −40%, CHBAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$50.12Fair Value $54.10Bull$63.36
Price $90.24 · Downside -40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.3% vs 7.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 34%
2026 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The regional bank shows typical sector metrics and limited evidence of differentiated durable advantages while high leverage remains a structural feature.
Main risk: A contraction or slowdown in Chiba prefecture's economy could reduce demand for loans, deposits and other banking services from local companies and households.
Chiba Bank and Chiba Kogyo Bank are preparing a joint holding company that would take effect in April 2027 and combine their operations under Chiba Financial Group. The step promises greater scale for regional lending and the rollout of AI tools under the latest mid-term plan, yet our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the efficiencies from consolidation outweigh integration costs and competitive pressures, or will they fall short?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−40.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)36.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)51.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chiba Bank Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHBAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $54.10 versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of $90.24, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHBAY?
Our model-based fair value for Chiba Bank Ltd is $54.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 29, 2026): $90.24.
What is the quality score of CHBAY?
Chiba Bank Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $54.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $50.12, optimistic scenario $63.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chiba Bank Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $54.10, about 40% lower versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of $90.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $50.12, optimistic scenario $63.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Chiba Bank Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥369B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Chiba Bank Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Chiba Bank Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chiba Bank Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2014. The payout ratio is 35.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chiba Bank Ltd it is $54.10 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $90.24. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Chiba Bank Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CHBAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $90.24, fair value $54.10, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHBAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($90.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($54.10). For Chiba Bank Ltd the two are $36.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chiba Bank Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Chiba Bank Ltd at about $12.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $90.24; our models calculate a fair value of $54.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHBAY?
Our models span a range for Chiba Bank Ltd: cautious scenario $50.12, base $54.10, optimistic $63.36 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $90.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHBAY?
Chiba Bank Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $54.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chiba Bank Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHBAY from its 52-week high?
Chiba Bank Ltd trades at $90.24, about 1% below its 52-week high of $91.14 and 87% above the low of $48.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $54.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chiba Bank Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chiba Bank Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $90.24, calculated fair value $54.10 (−40%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHBAY calculated?
We run Chiba Bank Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $54.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chiba Bank Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 29, 2026 and stands at $90.24. Our model-based fair value is $54.10, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chiba Bank Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($63.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Chiba Bank Ltd grew +5.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chiba Bank Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The market capitalisation of Chiba Bank Ltd is $12.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chiba Bank Ltd is 4.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Earnings per share at Chiba Bank Ltd are $4.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The dividend yield of Chiba Bank Ltd is 1.8% (payout 34.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The net margin of Chiba Bank Ltd is 23.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chiba Bank Ltd is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chiba Bank Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
The operating margin of Chiba Bank Ltd is 36.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Revenue at Chiba Bank Ltd is growing +51.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY)?
Earnings per share at Chiba Bank Ltd are growing +40.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Chiba Bank Ltd is ¥105B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chiba Bank Ltd (CHBAY) hold?
Chiba Bank Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥257B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026