China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $8.4B
China Mengniu Dairy Company
CIADF · US
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Jun 24, 2026 — revised from $1.38 to $1.20 (−13.0%) since Jun 23, 2026. Share price −7.7% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $1.05 – $6.02 · fair‑value band $0.9000 – $1.50 · the $2.17 price screens above the $1.20 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) currently trades at $2.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.20 — implying the stock looks roughly 44.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Mengniu Dairy Company generated revenue of $82.2B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at $12.0B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Mengniu Dairy Company reported revenue of $80.1B in FY2025 versus $88.1B in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding −26.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- China Baby Food Market Analysis Report 2026-2034: Demand Surges for Safe, High-quality, Fortified Baby Food Across Milk Formula, Prepared Fo
- Baron International Growth Fund initiated NMR, ESLOF, PONY, GDS, and KUASF; exits YAHOF, DNOPF, and CIADF.
- China Mengniu Dairy (SEHK:2319): Assessing Valuation as Shares Drift Lower Despite Earnings Growth
- New Strong Sell Stocks for September 29th
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others) — not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.