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China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Mengniu Dairy Company $1.22, price $2.02, upside -39.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company
CIADF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.22 · Strongly overvalued (−39.6%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −9.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓24.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9911 – $5.66 · fair‑value band $1.19 – $1.53 · the $2.02 price screens above the $1.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) currently trades at $2.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.22, 39.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $3.03 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $2.02 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.4700, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.19 (bear) to $1.53 (bull), the price of $2.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
China Mengniu Dairy Company reported revenue of 80.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 88.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B · P/E ratio 33.7 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −40%, CIADF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.19
Fair Value $1.22
Bull $1.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$3.08
$4.86
$7.57
79
Growth DCF
$3.10
$4.83
$7.41
77
Residual Income
$1.15
$1.15
$1.18
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$3.08
$4.86
$7.57
79
Owner Earnings
$1.39
$2.16
$3.35
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.03
$3.01
$4.24
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.76
$4.41
$6.35
75
5Y P/E Exit
$1.67
$2.31
$2.96
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.34
$3.33
$4.66
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.85
$4.30
$6.28
68
10Y P/E Exit
$2.16
$2.85
$3.68
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.4000
$1.41
$1.90
64
Lynch FV
$0.3300
$0.4700
$0.6100
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3300
$0.4700
$0.6100
57
EPV
$1.07
$1.23
$1.37
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.6800
$1.35
$2.04
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.6800
$1.16
$1.42
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.9200
$1.22
$1.53
63
P/S Multiple
$0.7400
$0.9900
$1.23
58
P/B Multiple
$0.7400
$0.9900
$1.23
55
EV/EBIT
$2.09
$2.76
$3.44
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.87
$3.80
$4.73
67
EV/Revenue
$1.51
$2.13
$2.75
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7800
$1.05
$1.56
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$3.10
$4.83
$7.41
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.03
$3.03
$4.23
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.15
$1.15
$1.18
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.07
$1.23
$1.37
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.6400
$0.9100
$1.18
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.1% vs −4.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.2% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
CIADF screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Compare China Mengniu Dairy Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 74.63 | CHF 59.51 | −20% |
| Danone S.A BN | €59.12 | €50.65 | −14% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥33.93 | ¥37.32 | +10% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $23.45 | $29.20 | +25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,363 | ₹724.74 | −47% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.90 | ¥41.84 | +56% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥24.55 | ¥9.98 | −59% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $31.67 | $34.59 | +9% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.68 SGD | 5.14 SGD | +40% |
| Kerry Group KRZ | €85.55 | €59.96 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.22 versus a price of $2.02, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIADF?
Our model-based fair value for China Mengniu Dairy Company is $1.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.02.
What is the quality score of CIADF?
China Mengniu Dairy Company has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.19, optimistic scenario $1.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Mengniu Dairy Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.22, about −40% upside versus a price of $2.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.19, optimistic scenario $1.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
China Mengniu Dairy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 82.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Mengniu Dairy Company would have to grow free cash flow by -8.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CIADF use?
Our models discount China Mengniu Dairy Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Mengniu Dairy Company that is -8.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Company grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies -8.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Mengniu Dairy Company (-8.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.90 %: that much free cash flow China Mengniu Dairy Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Mengniu Dairy Company it is $1.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.02. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Mengniu Dairy Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CIADF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.02, fair value $1.22, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIADF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.22). For China Mengniu Dairy Company the two are $0.8000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Mengniu Dairy Company worth?
The market values China Mengniu Dairy Company at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.02; our models calculate a fair value of $1.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIADF?
Our models span a range for China Mengniu Dairy Company: cautious scenario $1.19, base $1.22, optimistic $1.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIADF?
China Mengniu Dairy Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CIADF?
The PEG ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Mengniu Dairy Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIADF from its 52-week high?
China Mengniu Dairy Company trades at $2.02, about 9% below its 52-week high of $2.21 and 20% above the low of $1.69 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Mengniu Dairy Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.02, calculated fair value $1.22 (−40%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIADF calculated?
We run China Mengniu Dairy Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Mengniu Dairy Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.02. Our model-based fair value is $1.22, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Mengniu Dairy Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Company grew −1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Mengniu Dairy Company
How large is the market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Company is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Company are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
The operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Company is growing −7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF)?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Company are growing −18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Mengniu Dairy Company (CIADF) carry?
The net debt of China Mengniu Dairy Company is 12.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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