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CMOC Group (CMCLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CMOC Group $2.47, price $1.99, upside +24.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
CMOC Group
CMCLF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $2.47 · Undervalued (+24.1%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓14.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2804 – $2.97 · fair‑value band $1.43 – $4.32 · the $1.99 price screens below the $2.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.
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CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe. It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments. The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer. It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities. The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
CMOC Group (CMCLF) currently trades at $1.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.47, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.33 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2900, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.43 (bear) to $4.32 (bull), the price of $1.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CMOC Group reported revenue of 201B CNY in FY2025 versus 174B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 19.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +40.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $49.6B · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) $0.1400 · Dividend yield 14.4% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 24%, CMCLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.43
Fair Value $2.47
Bull $4.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.56
$2.35
$4.90
76
Growth DCF
$1.47
$2.60
$4.88
75
EPV
$1.71
$1.96
$2.19
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.56
$2.35
$4.90
76
Owner Earnings
$1.96
$4.25
$9.07
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.44
$2.43
$4.51
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.00
$3.55
$6.60
72
5Y P/E Exit
$1.55
$3.27
$5.61
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.45
$3.11
$4.20
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.90
$4.30
$8.56
64
10Y P/E Exit
$1.58
$3.33
$6.22
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7100
$4.95
$6.95
63
Lynch FV
$2.00
$2.86
$3.72
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.00
$2.86
$3.72
57
EPV
$1.71
$1.96
$2.19
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2600
$0.5300
$0.8500
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2600
$0.4500
$0.5600
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.33
$1.77
$2.22
63
P/S Multiple
$1.19
$1.59
$1.99
58
P/B Multiple
$0.9800
$1.30
$1.63
55
EV/EBIT
$2.46
$3.23
$4.00
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.09
$2.73
$3.37
67
EV/Revenue
$1.28
$1.75
$2.23
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2200
$0.2900
$0.4300
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.47
$2.60
$4.88
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.48
$2.76
$5.22
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6800
$0.9600
$1.98
71
ROIC Compounder
$2.01
$2.71
$3.62
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.33
$3.33
$4.33
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability
62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+63.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+48.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)14.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.53.9% vs 31.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 21%
2025 sits 145% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%
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Compare CMOC Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 435 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
| Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 | ¥35.42 | ¥54.86 | +55% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is CMOC Group (CMCLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.47 versus a price of $1.99, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMCLF?
Our model-based fair value for CMOC Group is $2.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.99.
What is the quality score of CMCLF?
CMOC Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.43, optimistic scenario $4.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CMOC Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.47, about +24% upside versus a price of $1.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.43, optimistic scenario $4.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
CMOC Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 227B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does CMOC Group pay a dividend?
CMOC Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 14.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CMOC Group would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMCLF use?
Our models discount CMOC Group at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CMOC Group that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CMOC Group (CMCLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CMOC Group grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CMOC Group (CMCLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CMOC Group (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.75 %: that much free cash flow CMOC Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CMOC Group it is $2.47 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $1.99. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CMOC Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CMCLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.99, fair value $2.47, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMCLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.47). For CMOC Group the two are $0.4800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CMOC Group worth?
The market values CMOC Group at about $49.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $1.99; our models calculate a fair value of $2.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMCLF?
Our models span a range for CMOC Group: cautious scenario $1.43, base $2.47, optimistic $4.32 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $1.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMCLF?
CMOC Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.47 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CMOC Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 28.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMCLF from its 52-week high?
CMOC Group trades at $1.99, about 33% below its 52-week high of $2.97 and 11% above the low of $1.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CMOC Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CMOC Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $1.99, calculated fair value $2.47 (+24%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMCLF calculated?
We run CMOC Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CMOC Group currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.99. Our model-based fair value is $2.47, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CMOC Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.43 to $4.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of CMOC Group (CMCLF) come from?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group grew +26.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +42.7 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate −3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CMOC Group
How large is the market capitalisation of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The market capitalisation of CMOC Group is $49.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CMOC Group is 1.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group are $0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The dividend yield of CMOC Group is 14.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The net margin of CMOC Group is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CMOC Group is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CMOC Group is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
The operating margin of CMOC Group is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Revenue at CMOC Group is growing +44.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CMOC Group (CMCLF)?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CMOC Group (CMCLF) hold?
CMOC Group holds more cash than debt, 377M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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