CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd $23.81, price $8.78, upside +171.2%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.39 – $12.28 · fair‑value band $19.70 – $30.95 · the $8.78 price screens below the $23.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CITIC Resources Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and coal in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Australia, Europe, other Asian countries, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Aluminum Smelting; Coal; Crude Oil; and Import and Export of Commodities.
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CITIC Resources Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and coal in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Australia, Europe, other Asian countries, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Aluminum Smelting; Coal; Crude Oil; and Import and Export of Commodities. The Aluminum Smelting segment operates a Portland aluminum smelter which sources alumina; and produces aluminum ingots in Australia. The Coal segment operates coal mines; and sells coal in Australia. The Crude Oil segment explores, develops, and operates oilfields, as well as sells crude oil in Indonesia and China. The Import and Export of Commodities segment exports various commodity products; and imports other commodities and manufactured goods. It also engages in alumina refinery; financing; oil technology development; and property holding activities. In addition, the company provides consulting and management services; invests in bauxite mining; and trades in oil and gas. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong. CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of CITIC Limited.
Stock analysis
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR (CTJHY) currently trades at $8.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.81, implying the stock looks roughly 63.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.69 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the $8.78 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.46, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.70 (bear) to $30.95 (bull), the price of $8.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$14.9B in FY2025 versus HK$4.3B in FY2021, a compound +36.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$170M in FY2025, compounding −37.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $345M · P/E ratio 0.2 · EPS (TTM) $55.45 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 1.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$15.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 171%, CTJHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $19.70Fair Value $23.81Bull $30.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($41.93 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.5% vs −5.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.1%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.8% a year for the price.
Compare CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+66.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Return on assets0.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.81 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $8.78, about +171% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTJHY?
Our model-based fair value for CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is $23.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $8.78.
What is the quality score of CTJHY?
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.70, optimistic scenario $30.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.81, about +171% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $8.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.70, optimistic scenario $30.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTJHY use?
Our models discount CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR that is -14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR grew +39.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR (-14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.99 %: that much free cash flow CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR it is $23.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTJHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.78, fair value $23.81, a gap of about +171% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTJHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.81). For CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $15.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR at about $345M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.78; our models calculate a fair value of $23.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTJHY?
Our models span a range for CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $19.70, base $23.81, optimistic $30.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTJHY?
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.81 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTJHY from its 52-week high?
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $8.78, about 14% below its 52-week high of $10.16 and at the low of $8.78 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.78, calculated fair value $23.81 (+171%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTJHY calculated?
We run CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $8.78. Our model-based fair value is $23.81, about +171% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The market capitalisation of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is $345M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR are $55.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The net margin of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
The operating margin of CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Revenue at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY)?
Earnings per share at CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR are growing −91.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd (CTJHY) hold?
CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, HK$41.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026