CaliberCos Inc (CWD) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $6.7M
CaliberCos Inc
CWD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −27.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.0800 to $0.1600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range $0.4423 – $154.00 · fair‑value band $0.0800 – $0.1600 · the $0.5209 price screens above the $0.1100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
CaliberCos Inc (CWD) currently trades at $0.5209, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1100, implying the stock looks roughly 78.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $17.1M. Revenue declined 40.9% year over year. Net debt stands at $95.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0800 (bear case) to $0.1600 (bull case); at $0.5209, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -79%, CWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CaliberCos Inc. is a real estate investment, and an asset management firm specializes in middle-market assets. It serves its investor clients by creating, managing, and servicing proprietary products, including middle-market investment funds, private syndications, and direct investments, which are managed by the firm's in-house asset services group.
Full company description
CaliberCos Inc. is a real estate investment, and an asset management firm specializes in middle-market assets. It serves its investor clients by creating, managing, and servicing proprietary products, including middle-market investment funds, private syndications, and direct investments, which are managed by the firm's in-house asset services group. It invests primarily in commercial real estate, qualified opportunity zones (QOZ), private equity, and debt facilities. It delivers a full suite of alternative investments to high net worth, accredited and qualified investors, as well as family offices and smaller institutions. CaliberCos Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CaliberCos Inc reported revenue of $20.1M in FY2025 versus $56.0M in FY2021, a compound −22.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.8M in FY2025.
CWD screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 971 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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