Danone S.A (DANOY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $48.4B
Danone S.A
DANOY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $11.92 to $12.03 (+0.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.49 to $17.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.06 – $17.95 · fair‑value band $7.49 – $17.11 · the $15.77 price screens above the $12.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Danone S.A (DANOY) currently trades at $15.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.03, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Danone S.A generated revenue of $27.3B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at $11.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.49 (bear case) to $17.11 (bull case); at $15.77, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -24%, DANOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($10.56) versus Asset-Based ($3.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments.
Full company description
Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments. It produces and distributes yogurts, dairy products, coffee creations and drinks, beverages, plant-based products, ice creams, frozen desserts, and cheese products. The company also provides specialized nutrition, including formulas and complementary feeding for babies and young children; and special medical purposes food for children and adults. In addition, it offers tube feeding products and oral nutritional supplements. Further, the company provides mineral waters from natural sources, waters infused with natural fruit extracts, fruit juices, and vitamins. The company offers its products under the Actimel, Activia, Alpro, Aptamil, Danette, Danio, Danonino, evian, Nutricia, Nutrilon, Volvic, Danone, Oikos, YoPRO, International Delight, SToK, Silk, So Delicious, Cow & Gate, Bebelac, SGM, Dumex, HiQ, Nursie, Phosphatine, Mizone, Blédina, Nutrison, Fortimel, Neocate, Nutridrink, AQUA, Bonafont, Salus, Hayat, Sirma, Font Vella, Lanjarón, and Zywiec Zdroj brands.It distributes its products through retail chains and traditional market outlets; convenience stores; hotels, restaurants, and coffee outlets; hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies; and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Groupe Danone and changed its name to Danone S.A. in April 2009. Danone S.A. was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Danone S.A reported revenue of $27.3B in FY2025 versus $24.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −1.3%/yr from FY2021.
DANOY screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Danone and Arcor complete the creation of their joint venture to unlock new dairy opportunities in Argentina
- SJM or DANOY: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Danone SA (DANOY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Strategic Expansions
- Danone: Notification of availability of Danone’s 2026 interim financial report
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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