Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Dis-Chem Pharmacies ZAR 23.70, price ZAR 26.65, upside -11.1%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R20.84 – R38.00 · fair‑value band R16.08 – R30.01 · the R26.65 price screens above the R23.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of healthcare products and pharmaceuticals in South Africa. The company operates through two segments, Retail and Wholesale.
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Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of healthcare products and pharmaceuticals in South Africa. The company operates through two segments, Retail and Wholesale. It owns and operates a chain of retail stores that offers various products, including dispensary, personal care and beauty, healthcare and nutrition, baby care, and other products. The company also provides pharmaceutical, health, and front shop products in the wholesale market. In addition, it offers customer loyalty programs. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) currently trades at R26.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R23.70, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R31.54 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the R26.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R4.42, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R16.08 (bear) to R30.01 (bull), the price of R26.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dis-Chem Pharmacies reported revenue of 42.8B ZAR in FY2026 versus 30.4B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was 979M ZAR in FY2026, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 27.6B ZAC · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) R1.14 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −11%, DCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R16.08Fair Value R23.70Bull R30.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3915 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pharmaceutical Retailers · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Pharmaceutical Retailers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dis-Chem Pharmacies Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DCP
Frequently asked questions
Is Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R23.70 versus a price of R26.65, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DCP?
Our model-based fair value for Dis-Chem Pharmacies is R23.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R26.65.
What is the quality score of DCP?
Dis-Chem Pharmacies has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R23.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R16.08, optimistic scenario R30.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dis-Chem Pharmacies stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R23.70, about −11% upside versus a price of R26.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R16.08, optimistic scenario R30.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Dis-Chem Pharmacies reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 42.8B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Dis-Chem Pharmacies pay a dividend?
Dis-Chem Pharmacies currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dis-Chem Pharmacies would have to grow free cash flow by +19.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DCP use?
Our models discount Dis-Chem Pharmacies at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dis-Chem Pharmacies that is +19.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dis-Chem Pharmacies grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +19.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dis-Chem Pharmacies (+19.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.31 %: that much free cash flow Dis-Chem Pharmacies produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dis-Chem Pharmacies it is R23.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R26.65. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dis-Chem Pharmacies stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DCP trades above its calculated fair value: price R26.65, fair value R23.70, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DCP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R26.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R23.70). For Dis-Chem Pharmacies the two are R2.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dis-Chem Pharmacies worth?
The market values Dis-Chem Pharmacies at about 27.6B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R26.65; our models calculate a fair value of R23.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DCP?
Our models span a range for Dis-Chem Pharmacies: cautious scenario R16.08, base R23.70, optimistic R30.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R26.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DCP?
Dis-Chem Pharmacies trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R23.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dis-Chem Pharmacies (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.0%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DCP from its 52-week high?
Dis-Chem Pharmacies trades at R26.65, about 30% below its 52-week high of R38.00 and 4% above the low of R25.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R23.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dis-Chem Pharmacies?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co, DaShenLin Pharmaceutical Group, LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dis-Chem Pharmacies stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R26.65, calculated fair value R23.70 (−11%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DCP calculated?
We run Dis-Chem Pharmacies through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R23.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Dis-Chem Pharmacies itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R26.65. Our model-based fair value is R23.70, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dis-Chem Pharmacies right now?
A fairly wide model range (R16.08 to R30.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) come from?
Earnings per share at Dis-Chem Pharmacies grew +7.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dis-Chem Pharmacies
How large is the market capitalisation of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The market capitalisation of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 27.6B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Earnings per share at Dis-Chem Pharmacies are R1.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The dividend yield of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 1.7% (payout 39.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The net margin of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 2.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
The operating margin of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Revenue at Dis-Chem Pharmacies is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)?
Earnings per share at Dis-Chem Pharmacies are growing −42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP) carry?
The net debt of Dis-Chem Pharmacies is 6.1B ZAC (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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